Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears optimistic due to favorable developments, including the Assad regime’s fall in Syria, potential resolution of the Kurdish issue, and economic recovery. However, significant challenges could undermine these advancements, as cautioned by expert Emre Peker, who highlights the precariousness of Turkey’s position amid global geopolitical shifts.
In the current geopolitical climate, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan displays a sense of optimism due to several favorable developments. With over 20 years in power, Erdogan aims to extend his tenure beyond 2028, benefitting from simultaneous positive trends in regional and domestic dynamics. Emre Peker, an expert from Eurasia Group, notes, “He has more of a chance to realize his foreign policy, security, and economic objectives than he’s had in well over a decade.”
Key developments contributing to Erdogan’s favorable position include the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, which he has worked toward for years. This transition is anticipated to facilitate the return of many Syrian refugees to Turkey, with over 80,000 having returned so far, while also enhancing Turkey’s economic influence. Turkey is forming a military partnership with the new Syrian government led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, following Assad’s fall facilitated by Turkish support.
Another significant development involves the Kurdish issue, as the PKK, the main Kurdish militant group, indicates willingness to cease armed conflict after four decades. Resolving this conflict could end a long-standing issue that has resulted in numerous casualties, thus improving domestic stability. Additionally, a potential ceasefire in Ukraine presents reconstruction opportunities for Turkey’s construction sector, with Erdogan maintaining amicable relations with Russia while positioning Turkey as a mediator in the region.
Economically, Turkey shows signs of improvement. Though inflation remains high at 39%, it reflects the lowest level in two years, and the central bank cautiously reduces interest rates to sustain economic momentum, contributing to a 3.2% GDP growth last year. However, substantial risks cloud this optimism.
Peker cautions that the situation in Syria could escalate unpredictably. The new government under al-Sharaa faces challenges of establishing stability, with recent violence indicating potential instability on Turkey’s borders. Furthermore, achieving a solution with the Kurdish population requires intricate negotiations, as Erdogan must balance the demands of Kurdish parties with the nationalist sentiments of his political allies.
The realignment of U.S. foreign policy could complicate Turkey’s position. While Turkey could benefit from Europe’s increased defense spending, the EU may prefer employing its funds internally rather than collaborating with Turkey. A withdrawal of U.S. defense support could leave Turkey vulnerable, as the U.S. military presence remains significant. Peker asserts, “Turkey is a massive beneficiary of the American security umbrella. If that were to deteriorate, that would be detrimental to Turkey regardless of how robust its defense industry is becoming.”
In conclusion, Turkey’s recent advantages under Erdogan’s leadership are tempered by considerable uncertainties. Despite several favorable trends, “it’s hardly a given that Turkey really comes out of this strengthened, victorious, and able to throw its weight around however it wants,” as emphasized by Peker. It is imperative to recognize the complexity of Turkey’s situation amid its ongoing geopolitical challenges and opportunities.
In summary, while Erdogan enjoys notable advantages such as regional shifts in Syria and potential economic growth, significant challenges persist. The situation remains precarious, particularly concerning stability in Syria, the Kurdish resolution, and shifting U.S. foreign policy. Thus, the outcome for Turkey remains uncertain as it navigates these intricacies.
Original Source: www.gzeromedia.com
