The political landscape of Iraq’s Shiite factions remains fragmented since the 2003 fall of Saddam Hussein, marked by rivalries and external influences, particularly from the US and Iran. The recent 2021 parliamentary elections underscored these divisions, with Muqtada al-Sadr’s movement gaining significant power while other factions faced severe setbacks. As Iraq prepares for the 2025 elections, the shifting alliances and rising leaders indicate a potentially transformative period for governance in the country.
Since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iraq’s political landscape has undergone significant changes, with Shiite political parties attaining power. Nonetheless, this dominance has been characterized by fragmentation, rivalries, and external influences from both the United States and Iran, creating a delicate balance for Iraq’s future.
The Shiite political community’s fragmentation can be traced back to Saddam Hussein’s regime, which marginalized and persecuted Shiite individuals. Groups such as the al-Dawa Party and the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) were prohibited from participating in politics and had to seek refuge in Iran. Following Saddam’s fall, these groups emerged as pivotal players in shaping the country’s post-2003 political framework. While some factions strengthened their ties with Iran, others sought independence from external influences, leading to a divided political front.
The 2021 parliamentary elections highlighted these divisions, with Muqtada al-Sadr’s Movement winning 73 out of 329 seats. This victory established al-Sadr as a significant political force, overshadowing established parties, such as Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law Coalition, which faced severe losses amidst public discontent. Political analyst Dr. Zaid al-Mutlaq remarked that al-Sadr’s success represented “a personal triumph for Muqtada al-Sadr” and symbolized a setback for Iran’s influence in Iraq.
Al-Sadr’s subsequent decision to withdraw his 73 seats in June 2022 due to political gridlock marked a further escalation in fragmentation. His declaration, “We cannot be part of a corrupt system that fails to serve the people of Iraq,” underscored his intent to dissociate from a flawed political system. This maneuver enabled the Coordination Framework to assume control, impacting governance and the political environment.
As political dynamics shift, alliances are essential in Iraq’s landscape. The defection of Alia Nassif, a former ally of al-Maliki, to Prime Minister al-Sudani’s bloc indicates ongoing fragmentation and highlights al-Sudani’s consolidation of power. The Coordination Framework is attempting to forge a comprehensive electoral alliance, demonstrating their commitment to overcoming internal divisions despite various challenges.
Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s ascent has raised concerns among established Shiite factions. His governing focus and pragmatic reforms resonate with both Shiite and Sunni constituencies dissatisfied with the prevailing fractious politics. His approach contrasts with traditional sectarian politics and presents him as a potential rival to influential figures like al-Maliki.
As Iraq prepares for the 2025 elections, political rivalries and alliances are in constant flux. Key leaders, including al-Sadr and al-Maliki, are repositioning themselves in response to the shifting landscape. Conversations regarding logistical support from the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) have commenced, although definitive political campaign activity remains tentatively underway.
The anticipated return of al-Sadr’s movement could significantly impact the positioning of competing factions, as expressed by Rahman Al-Jazaeri from the Coordination Framework, emphasizing al-Sadr’s remaining prominence in the political arena. Nonetheless, his focus on reform suggests a polarizing influence, and a Sadrist official indicated a firm stance against collaboration with the Coordination Framework.
Experts suggest various political outcomes as Iraq approaches its next elections, each capable of redefining the governmental structure. Should al-Sadr choose re-engagement, it might disrupt the Coordination Framework’s coherent strategy. However, if the alignment between factions strengthens, they may pose a formidable challenge to both al-Sadr’s influence and al-Sudani’s administration.
Additionally, external influences, particularly the US-Iran rivalry, will continue to shape Iraq’s political landscape. The fragmentation among Shiite factions has been further pronounced by these external pressures. As observed by senior political analyst Mujash’e al-Tamimi, “The future is a puzzle where the missing pieces are constantly shifting,” underscoring the complexity of Iraq’s quest for stability amidst ongoing challenges.
In summary, Iraq’s Shiite factions are navigating a highly fragmented political landscape defined by deep ideological divides and external influences. The political dynamics have shifted notably following the 2021 elections, particularly with the rise of Muqtada al-Sadr and the emergence of Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. As Iraq heads towards the 2025 parliamentary elections, the potential for realignment and renewed political rivalries raises both opportunities and challenges for the country’s future governance. The continued impact of external forces, particularly the ongoing US-Iran rivalry, adds another layer of complexity in Iraq’s quest for stability and unity.
Original Source: shafaq.com
