Brazil’s coffee stockpiles are rapidly decreasing as farmers take advantage of record prices, with 88 percent of the 2024 crop already sold. Low rainfall is expected to affect future crop production, leading to concerns about coffee availability until the next harvest. Key players in the industry express that current stock levels are the lowest on record for this time of year.
Brazil’s coffee stockpiles are rapidly depleting as farmers take advantage of record high prices, with reports indicating that these reserves, intended to last until July, are nearing exhaustion. Farmers are eager to sell their beans amidst soaring global prices that have almost doubled in the last 14 months, resulting in a surge of 70 percent for arabica coffee and 72 percent for robusta coffee in the previous year.
As of mid-February, arabica prices reached an unprecedented high of over US$4.30 per pound, while robusta peaking at US$5,847 per metric ton led to farmers selling a considerable percentage of their crops. According to consultancy Safras & Mercado, 88 percent of the 2024 crop has already been sold, surpassing last year’s figures and the five-year average.
Willian Cesar Freiria from Cocapec remarked on the unusual low stock levels for this time of year, indicating a looming scarcity until the next harvest. Luiz Fernando dos Reis from Cooxupe noted similar trends, indicating that Cooxupe farmers have sold 90 percent of their production, marking the lowest stock levels on record. With the next harvest not expected until May or June, coffee availability will be particularly constrained.
While many farmers have sold most of their harvest, some, especially small-scale farmers, retain a portion of their stock as a precautionary measure. Paulo Armelin, a farmer from the Cerrado Mineiro region, is holding back 40 percent of his harvest for protection against potential shortages. He is currently negotiating higher prices with buyers due to expected lower production this year.
Additionally, the Brazilian government’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, predicted a 4.4 percent decrease in coffee production for the 2025-2026 crop year, projecting a three-year low of 51.81 million bags, largely attributed to the lowest rainfall experienced in decades.
In summary, Brazil’s coffee stockpiles are dwindling as farmers capitalize on record prices, with substantial portions of the 2024 crop already sold. The early depletion of these reserves foreshadows potential scarcity until the next harvest. Moreover, ongoing adverse weather conditions could result in further reductions in future production, warranting caution among both farmers and consumers alike.
Original Source: macaonews.org
