President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló’s decision to dissolve parliament amid opposition protests raises concerns over Guinea-Bissau’s political stability. ECOWAS’s failed mediation attempt reflects its struggle to exert authority. Embaló’s actions threaten to destabilize the country while also challenging ECOWAS’s credibility in future interventions in West Africa.
In December 2019, President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló won the presidential elections, receiving a five-year mandate with intentions to seek re-election in 2025. However, his controversial decision in December 2023 to dissolve the parliament without setting a date for new elections has sparked significant outrage from opposition parties, who accuse him of undermining the constitution and consolidating his power. Opposition leaders are now threatening protests, strikes, and civil disobedience if a clear election date is not established.
The dispute over Embaló’s term’s end has further fueled tensions, with the opposition asserting it concludes on February 27, 2025, while the Supreme Court extended it to September 4, 2025. This ruling has been met with strong opposition and has intensified the political crisis. Additionally, Embaló’s declaration in September 2024 to forego a second term has been called into question as he later suggested he may reconsider after consulting his family, increasing political instability in Guinea-Bissau.
On March 3, 2025, an ECOWAS delegation aimed to mediate the escalating political impasse but met with hostility from President Embaló, who effectively expelled them. During this confrontation, he warned the mediators to avoid involvement in Guinea-Bissau’s “internal affairs,” which effectively ended their mission and revealed Embaló’s preference for French involvement over regional support.
Following this diplomatic incident, President Embaló confirmed his intention to seek a second term in the upcoming November elections, further demonstrating his resistance to ECOWAS intervention. This move raises critical questions regarding ECOWAS’s inability to exert authority and influence, as compared to its active roles in resolving previous crises in The Gambia and Niger. The actions taken, or not taken, in Guinea-Bissau will set a significant precedent for future regional interventions.
As the situation develops, President Embaló’s leadership remains in question, with indications of his disregard for navigating this tumultuous crisis. His decisions threaten Guinea-Bissau’s stability, while also isolating him in the event of upheaval. The potential influence or support from France adds a layer of complexity to the crisis, as he may need to seek counsel from regional peers on the reliability of international backing. Ultimately, the choices made by Embaló will not only chart Guinea-Bissau’s course but also impact the credibility of ECOWAS in maintaining regional peace.
In summary, President Embaló’s controversial actions in Guinea-Bissau pose significant challenges to the country’s political stability and raise critical questions surrounding ECOWAS’s authority in the region. His resistance to international mediation and preference for foreign involvement signal potential shifts in power dynamics. The upcoming months will determine both Guinea-Bissau’s future and the effectiveness of regional organizations like ECOWAS in addressing political crises.
Original Source: thepoint.gm
