President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló has faced mounting criticism for dissolving Guinea-Bissau’s parliament without a set election date, leading to threats of mass protests from opposition. The constitutionality of his term extension is in dispute, heightening tensions. ECOWAS’s failed mediation attempts reflect broader regional governance challenges, raising questions about the efficacy of its interventions. President Embaló’s potential reliance on France complicates his position amid instability and unrest.
In December 2019, President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló of Guinea-Bissau won the presidential elections, beginning a five-year term that allowed him to pursue re-election in 2025. However, by December 2023, he controversially dissolved parliament without scheduling new elections, leading opposition parties to accuse him of stalling the electoral process, undermining the constitution, and consolidating his power. Such actions have prompted threats of protests and civil disobedience from opposition leaders demanding a clear election timeline.
A significant point of contention is the official end date of President Embaló’s term. While the opposition claims his mandate concludes on February 27, 2025, according to constitutional provisions, the Supreme Court’s decision to extend it to September 4, 2025, has faced strong opposition. The opposition’s rejection reflects a contested political landscape in Guinea-Bissau.
On September 2024, President Embaló announced he would not seek a second term. However, he later implied a potential reconsideration of this decision after discussions with his family, indicating a volatile political atmosphere that raises uncertainty regarding future elections. As the situation escalates, implications for regional stability become significant.
On March 3, 2025, ECOWAS dispatched a high-level delegation to facilitate dialogue regarding the ongoing political crisis in Guinea-Bissau. However, President Embaló’s hostile reception resulted in the delegation’s withdrawal, as he insisted that they refrain from meddling in the nation’s internal affairs. This rejection raises questions about ECOWAS’s ability to manage political tensions in the region effectively.
Following his dismissal of the ECOWAS mediation attempt, President Embaló communicated to French President Emmanuel Macron his intention to pursue a second term in the November elections. This decision deviates from ECOWAS’s mediation efforts, suggesting Embaló’s preference for external intervention from France rather than support from his regional organization.
ECOWAS’s current silence prompts pivotal inquiries about its inability to exert influence over President Embaló, contrasting with its previous interventions in The Gambia and Niger. The responses, or lack thereof, by ECOWAS in Guinea-Bissau could set important precedents for future regional actions, necessitating a clear definition of permissible interventions in member states’ internal matters.
President Embaló’s leadership during this crisis has been notably inadequate, causing significant political unrest in Guinea-Bissau. His actions risk exacerbating internal divisions, threatening stability and making him vulnerable even to potential coups. The extent of his reliance on French support raises further concerns about his future.
In light of this urgent situation, it is imperative to consider the involvement of skilled mediators like Dr. Mohamed Ibn Chambas. His expertise could be critical in addressing the escalating crisis in Guinea-Bissau, emphasizing the need for diplomatic solutions over stalled negotiations.
The political turmoil in Guinea-Bissau, marked by President Embaló’s controversial decisions, highlights significant challenges for both the national governance and the authority of ECOWAS. As the nation faces potential unrest and a crisis in leadership, the outcomes of these developments will have lasting implications for regional stability and the effectiveness of diplomatic interventions in West Africa.
Original Source: thepoint.gm
