A report from the Alma Research Center reveals the Lebanese Armed Forces are increasingly aligned with Hezbollah, questioning their ability to enforce ceasefire agreements with Israel. President Joseph Aoun claims the state will solely handle national security, but internal dynamics suggest otherwise. The report highlights demographic changes favoring Shi’ite recruits and operational challenges facing the LAF, explaining the military’s cooperation with Hezbollah and implications for regional stability.
A recent report from the Alma Research and Education Center highlights troubling developments within the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in southern Lebanon. It raises concerns regarding the increasing alignment of the LAF with Hezbollah, questioning its capacity to effectively enforce the ceasefire agreement with Israel. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun asserts that only the state will manage national security, despite evidence supporting Hezbollah’s influence within the military.
During his visit to Saudi Arabia, President Aoun seeks international support to revitalize military aid to the LAF, which was previously halted due to Lebanon’s failure to condemn Iranian actions affecting Saudi interests. Aoun presents himself as a counterbalance to Hezbollah alongside new Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, aiming to foster a narrative of reform and accountability within the LAF.
However, the report by Tal Beeri of the Alma Center casts doubt on these assertions, indicating that the LAF’s effectiveness is undermined by internal factors, including a demographic shift favoring Shi’ite recruits, leading to a potential Shi’ite majority within the military. Furthermore, there exists significant collaboration between LAF personnel and Hezbollah operatives, hindering the LAF’s operational autonomy.
The findings reveal that Shi’ite members within the LAF often support Hezbollah activities, allowing the group to circumvent international mandates and agreements, such as U.N. Resolution 1701. This cooperation further complicates the LAF’s role in maintaining stability, as seen in instances where the LAF failed to prevent unauthorized incursions into Israeli-controlled territories.
Moreover, familial connections between LAF soldiers and Hezbollah operatives raise concerns regarding the potential exploitation of the LAF by Hezbollah, turning the military into an extension of the group, or reducing it to a support vehicle. If unchecked, this trend may lead to an irreversible sectarian transformation within the LAF, compromising its legitimacy as a national army.
Historically, U.S. assistance, amounting to approximately $3 billion over two decades, including military equipment, has fallen into the hands of Hezbollah, undermining the notion of the LAF as a counterweight to the group. This reality compels a reassessment of strategies to strengthen the LAF without further militarizing sectarian divisions.
Experts suggest that Lebanon should undertake reforms under international guidance to counteract Hezbollah’s influence, such as isolating the group politically and addressing the demographic shifts in military recruitment. Recommendations also include removing Shi’ite commanders from southern Lebanon to enhance the LAF’s operational integrity and efficacy against Hezbollah.
The ongoing infiltration of the Lebanese Armed Forces by Hezbollah loyalists significantly undermines the state’s ability to manage security and enforce ceasefire agreements. Despite President Aoun’s rhetoric aimed at asserting state authority, the demographic shifts and internal dynamics hinder the LAF’s operational capability. Without significant reforms and international pressure, the LAF risks becoming seen as a sectarian entity rather than a unified national army, ultimately complicating the geopolitical landscape in Lebanon and the surrounding region.
Original Source: www.jewishpress.com
