Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s visit to Mogadishu marks a significant reconnection between Ethiopia and Somalia, following tensions from a previous MoU with Somaliland. The meeting solidifies ties and indicates a shift in regional politics as Somalia opts to retain Ethiopian peacekeepers. Analysts note the complexities of Ethiopia’s relationships with Egypt and Eritrea, suggesting further diplomatic efforts to cement stability in the Horn of Africa.
This week, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited Mogadishu to meet with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, further formalizing relations that were strained since January 2024. This visit follows the Ankara Declaration of December 2024, which ended a prolonged period of conflict stemming from Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland. Analysts perceive this meeting as a significant step in solidifying ties between the two countries.
During his visit, PM Abiy emphasized the Horn of Africa’s resource potential and the necessity for integration to achieve regional growth. “We cannot grow in isolation, but together, we can thrive,” he asserted, indicating a commitment to collaboration on peace, security, and development. His statements reflect a growing optimism and a desire to move beyond previous tensions.
The visit also coincides with Somalia’s decision to retain Ethiopian troops for the African Union’s peacekeeping mission, reversing earlier plans to replace them with Egyptian forces. This shift demonstrates a realignment in Somali defense strategy, signaling improved relations with Ethiopia and reduced reliance on Egypt. Experts suggest this new cooperation could alter the geopolitical landscape in the region.
Political analyst Constantinos Berhutesfa notes the historical instability of relationships in the Horn of Africa, describing previous alliances as fickle. He views the current normalization between Ethiopia and Somalia as both an outcome of the Ankara Declaration and a reaction to Somaliland’s uncertain position regarding the MoU with Ethiopia. The recent visit underscores significant changes in regional dynamics.
Constantinos also highlights the implications of Ethiopia’s improved relations with Somalia on Egypt’s influence. The tripartite military agreement formed last October among Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt raises concerns, particularly regarding the future of Somalia’s alliances amidst shifting power structures. The normalization complicates Egypt’s strategy to isolate Ethiopia and could affect ongoing tensions in the region.
Despite the diplomatic progress, Ethiopia’s past engagements with Egypt and Eritrea remain contentious, particularly regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Former Ethiopian President Mulatu Teshome’s recent comments purportedly accusing Eritrea of regional destabilization reflect this ongoing tension. However, analysts express cautious optimism, suggesting a full-blown military conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea is unlikely due to the historical consequences of war.
In conclusion, the visit signals potential for Ethiopia to reclaim its position as a regional stabilizer while encouraging diplomatic resolutions to ongoing conflicts. Constantinos advocates for Ethiopia to spearhead an international peace summit, perceiving this as an essential strategy for restoring Ethiopia’s credibility and leadership in the Horn of Africa. He emphasizes the pivotal role Ethiopia must assume in resolving regional crises and enhancing its diplomatic stature.
The ongoing developments between Ethiopia and Somalia demonstrate a resurgence in diplomatic relations following a period of tension. As Ethiopia endeavors to restore its regional influence, analysts highlight the complexities of its relationships with neighboring countries, particularly Egypt and Eritrea. A proposed international summit may serve to consolidate peace efforts, enhance Ethiopia’s credibility, and assert its role as a stabilizing force in the Horn of Africa.
Original Source: www.thereporterethiopia.com
