The M23 rebellion in the DRC, backed by Rwanda, has advanced rapidly, causing significant military and humanitarian crises amid inadequate resistance from Congolese forces. Diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire by regional bodies have failed, and the rebellion’s encompassing advancements threaten to destabilize much of the DRC, raising serious concerns about renewed civil conflicts and the need for a comprehensive peace process involving multiple stakeholders.
The M23 rebellion, supported by Rwanda, has advanced significantly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), capturing Goma and Bukavu since January 2025. The Congolese armed forces (FARDC) are struggling to resist this movement, especially after European mercenaries withdrew. Burundian forces, numbering approximately 10,000, have reportedly begun a withdrawal as M23 captures key locations, including Kamanyola and potentially Uvira.
As M23 continues its assault towards Butembo, Ugandan troops have entered to seize Bunia, Ituri’s capital. President Museveni claims this deployment aims solely to combat the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) and not the M23. Yet, skepticism remains regarding possible coordination between Ugandan troops and M23, given the favorable comments from Ugandan military leaders concerning the rebellion.
The ongoing conflict exacerbates an already dire humanitarian situation, with thousands displaced from Goma into Rwanda and other regions, contributing to an estimated total of 4.6 million displaced individuals in the DRC. Recent reports suggest around 3,000 casualties during M23’s attack on Goma. This environment fosters a high risk of mass atrocities amidst widespread violence by various armed groups.
Efforts from regional organizations, including the East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC), have failed to yield a ceasefire, mainly due to tensions and the M23’s swift advances, which many Congolese attribute to Rwandan and Ugandan interference. This resentment is evident in the attacks on the embassies of both countries in Kinshasa.
The conflict has evolved rapidly, with experts noting that M23 is advancing faster than during the prior Congo wars. Observers worry that if the situation continues unchecked, M23 may threaten even Kinshasa. There is speculation regarding M23’s significant military preparation and support, which includes alleged backing and personnel from the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF).
The Burundian Defence Force (BNDF) has engaged in skirmishes with M23 alongside other Congolese troops, though relations between Rwanda and Burundi have soured since 2015. As the conflict escalates, President Tshisekedi has sought support from SADC forces, which have faced significant losses in recent engagements with M23, leading to South African warnings against further escalation.
M23 has adapted its strategy by imposing governance in captured territories, absorbing defeated Congolese forces, and expanding control over lucrative mining sites like Rubaya, key for minerals necessary for electric vehicles. Reports indicate M23 earns substantial revenue from resource taxation, fueling its military ambitions and provoking calls for action from international bodies like the European Union.
Diplomatic attempts at resolution have so far failed, with various summits yielding no effective agreements. Tensions persist between the Congolese government and regional forces, complicating efforts for meaningful dialogue. Observers underscore the necessity for a comprehensive approach to address citizenship issues, particularly for Congolese of Rwandan descent, to pave the way for lasting peace.
Multiple potential scenarios for the ongoing crisis are being discussed, including de facto Rwandan annexation, a national rebellion aiming for power capture by M23, or a protracted civil war reminiscent of past conflicts. Moving forward, experts advocate for a Congolese National Conference uniting all factions, supported by necessary safeguards to maintain a peaceful negotiation process.
Ultimately, the situation in the DRC demands urgent and coordinated approaches to establish a durable peace, validated by both national and regional support. African nations must engage meaningfully, drawing on historical precedents and inclusive strategies while ensuring accountability and shared governance. The call for a multinational force and a structured conference agenda may be steps towards restoring stability and addressing foundational issues plaguing the DRC.
The M23 rebellion in the DRC, supported by Rwanda, poses a significant threat to regional stability, exacerbating humanitarian crises and prompting fears of a renewed civil war. Despite ongoing regional diplomatic efforts, tensions rise as the insurgency advances with support from neighboring states. Addressing underlying issues, including citizenship and governance, is crucial for any sustainable resolution, potentially requiring an inclusive national conference to unify various stakeholders in the peace process.
Original Source: reliefweb.int
