China missed a key climate target in 2024, with emissions slightly rising and coal dominance persisting despite increased renewable energy investments. Carbon intensity fell by only 3.4%, not meeting the anticipated 3.9%. Experts express skepticism about meeting future carbon reduction commitments, highlighting significant obstacles from ongoing industrial growth.
On February 28, official data revealed that China did not meet a significant climate target in 2024, with a slight rise in emissions while coal maintained its dominance despite record renewable energy additions. Analysts noted that this puts China off track regarding its commitments under the Paris Agreement. The National Bureau of Statistics reported a decrease in carbon intensity of only 3.4%, falling short of the official target of 3.9% and hindering progress toward an 18% reduction goal from 2020 to 2025.
Despite forecasts indicating potential peak emissions in 2024, emissions actually increased slightly. Experts, such as Mr. Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, expressed concerns that it is unlikely for China to attain its target of reducing carbon intensity by 65% from 2005 levels by 2030. According to Mr. Myllyvirta, achieving this goal will necessitate a significant 22% reduction in carbon intensity between 2026 and 2030.
China, while being the largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, is also leading in renewable energy production. The nation aims to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and reach net-zero emissions by 2060. Analysts had anticipated that the combination of slowing economic growth and increasing renewable installations would lead to a decline in emissions in 2024, although actual results fell short of these expectations.
Mr. Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst for Asia at Ember, stated that the ongoing growth in China’s carbon-intensive industrial sector has impeded progress toward climate goals, with energy demand growing faster than clean energy infrastructure can develop. To promote sustainable energy practices, reforms that enhance flexibility in the energy market and improve clean energy infrastructure are essential.
While total energy consumption rose by 4.3% compared to 2023, coal still accounted for over half of China’s energy supply. Nonetheless, with sharp increases in renewable energy use, there is potential for coal power to decline as demand for electricity transitions to renewable sources. Mr. Yang indicated that once this shift occurs, coal use will begin to decrease in absolute terms.
Later in 2025, China is expected to release details of its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030, which will likely include updated emissions and energy goals. Furthermore, China missed the February deadline to submit its new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, although global expectations suggest that most countries will fulfill these submissions by 2025.
In summary, China has fallen short of its climate targets for 2024 as emissions increased slightly amid continued reliance on coal. Despite ambitions to peak emissions by 2030 and achieve net-zero by 2060, the country faces significant challenges in aligning its industrial growth with sustainable energy initiatives. The forthcoming Five-Year Plan and NDC submissions are expected to provide clearer goals moving forward.
Original Source: www.straitstimes.com
