The ceasefire between Hizbollah and Israel has ended hostilities but left underlying tensions in Lebanon unresolved. The return of displaced refugees has reignited issues among non-Shiite communities. Hizbollah’s influence remains strong, leading to political debates over its disarmament. The newly elected Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun, aims to navigate these challenges and implement reforms while the international community must support Lebanon’s stability. The potential for negotiation exists, yet caution is necessary to avoid exacerbating domestic support for Hizbollah.
In November 2024, the ceasefire concluded fourteen months of conflict between Hizbollah and Israel, initiated on 8 October, a day following Hamas’s attacks on Israel. This truce, while halting hostilities, has not resolved underlying tensions in Lebanon. Hizbollah suffered significant setbacks but retains considerable influence, inciting political factions in Lebanon to revive discussions on disarming the group, a ceasefire stipulation. Repatriation of approximately one million displaced individuals has not alleviated discomfort; a collapse of the ceasefire could reignite tensions.
The ceasefire required the Lebanese army to strip Hizbollah of military capabilities. Israel agreed to withdraw from southern Lebanon by January, but accusations of violations have persisted, further complicating the aftermath of the conflict. Despite the ceasefire holding, the timeline for Israel’s withdrawal was delayed, leading to deadly confrontations that underscore the volatility of the situation. The resulting displacement of Shiite residents has created additional societal tensions, particularly among non-Shiite communities.
The end of warfare has led to polarized narratives around Hizbollah’s role in Lebanon’s future. Supporters of Hizbollah herald its alleged victory, suggesting that Israel’s ceasefire concession indicates failure on Israel’s part. Conversely, political opponents criticize Hizbollah for jeopardizing Lebanon’s stability, labeling themselves “sovereignists” and advocating for the group to disarm and adhere to the ceasefire. The newly appointed Lebanese government must navigate these sensitive tensions while addressing crucial reforms.
In January 2025, Lebanese politicians elected Joseph Aoun as president and formed a new cabinet, thereby ending a prolonged political vacuum since November 2022. Aoun, in his inaugural address, underscored the necessity of state control over weaponry and pledged to prioritize economic recovery amid international pressure. However, Hizbollah and its allies may resist these reformative measures, complicating the political climate.
Hizbollah’s historic significance and military capacities continue to shape Lebanon’s political landscape, despite international apprehensions about its influence. While the group endured losses during the conflict, its residual strength poses a challenge to political adversaries. Political dynamics are complicated by Hizbollah’s entrenched positions in parliament and the cabinet, granting them potential veto power within Lebanon’s factional system.
Sovereignists acknowledge Hizbollah’s military prowess but consider armed confrontation unlikely due to the group’s diminished status post-war. The emergence of this political landscape presents a critical opportunity to challenge Hizbollah’s monopoly on arms, though any aggressive disarmament attempts may provoke destabilization. Historical behavior suggests that Hizbollah could respond with protests or retaliatory actions if its status is threatened, potentially leading to increased intercommunal violence.
As Lebanon’s new leadership strategizes on securing the truce, it will be imperative to engage Hizbollah in meaningful discussions about disarmament that preserve the party’s political existence. Consensus-building rather than exclusion could foster a more stable Lebanon. International actors should remain cautious about isolating Hizbollah, which might inadvertently consolidate its domestic support, and should focus on strengthening the Lebanese army and supporting humanitarian efforts.
Ultimately, the ceasefire presents a vital juncture for Lebanon. Harnessing the opportunity for negotiations among political factions could yield positive outcomes for state stability and citizen welfare. Collaborating with international partners to support reconstruction while strengthening state institutions could further cultivate respect for Lebanon’s governance, ultimately benefiting the broader region.
In the wake of the ceasefire between Hizbollah and Israel, Lebanon is grappling with renewed domestic tensions and the aftermath of conflict. Political divisions are emerging regarding Hizbollah’s disarmament and role in Lebanon’s future, prompting discussions about its integration within a reformed political landscape. Effective engagement with Hizbollah, coupled with external support for the Lebanese army and reconstruction efforts, is essential for fostering stability in the region. Ultimately, striking a balance between disarmament and political inclusion presents the best path forward to ensure Lebanon’s governance and security.
Original Source: reliefweb.int
