Lebanon has entered a ceasefire following a prolonged conflict between Hizbollah and Israel, with many displaced residents returning home. Political debates regarding Hizbollah’s disarmament have resurfaced, highlighting deep divisions among Lebanese factions. Newly elected leadership aims to facilitate reforms and contain tensions, yet Hizbollah’s political influence poses challenges for state authority. International support for the Lebanese Army and humanitarian initiatives is crucial for stability in Lebanon.
In November 2024, a ceasefire concluded a lengthy conflict between Hizbollah and Israel that began on October 8, following Hamas’s significant attacks on Israel. The ceasefire led to the return of many of the over one million displaced Lebanese, though lingering tensions could resurface if hostilities recommence. Political leaders in Lebanon must seek a negotiated disarmament of Hizbollah, supported by external actors concentrating on ceasefire enforcement and reinforcing the Lebanese Army while avoiding internal politics.
Although the ceasefire appears to be holding, it remains precarious, with both Hizbollah and Israel accusing each other of violations. Complications arose when Israel delayed its troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon after a stipulated deadline, leading to violence against returning Lebanese citizens. The conflict has also ignited tensions surrounding the return of displaced Shiite residents, particularly among non-Shiite communities.
Divergent narratives have emerged regarding Hizbollah’s role post-war, with the group claiming victory, while opponents criticize its actions that led to widespread destruction. These opposing views set the stage for a continued struggle in Lebanese politics, as the so-called “sovereignists” advocate for the disarmament of Hizbollah, seeking to reinforce the state’s authority.
With the recent election of President Joseph Aoun and a new cabinet led by Nawaf Salam, Lebanon aims to address the internal tensions and implement crucial reforms. Aoun has committed to affirming the state’s control over armaments, which Hizbollah has reluctantly accepted due to international pressure. Despite initial enthusiasm for reform, Hizbollah’s cooperation remains uncertain amidst its historical significance and political influence in Lebanon.
Although Hizbollah’s military capabilities may have been reduced, it retains significant strength as an armed force. The political landscape continues to be dominated by Hizbollah and its key ally, the Amal Movement, maintaining substantial seats in parliament and the cabinet. The sovereignists acknowledge Hizbollah’s power but remain cautious of escalating confrontations that could invoke civil unrest or intercommunal violence.
To stabilize Lebanon politically and socially, it is critical for its leaders to nurture dialogue and find avenues for negotiation concerning Hizbollah’s disarmament. This ceasefire presents an opportunity to engage with political factions and mitigate violent outcomes. Internationally, the U.S. should bolster the Lebanese Army as a more effective support strategy, as efforts to marginalize Hizbollah could ultimately fortify its domestic standing.
In summary, Lebanon’s political class must navigate the fragile truce and address the repercussions of the recent conflict, fostering constructive negotiation to manage Hizbollah without resorting to confrontational measures. The international community should focus on enhancing the capacity of the Lebanese Army alongside humanitarian support to establish a stable and secure Lebanon.
In conclusion, Lebanon finds itself at a critical juncture following the recent ceasefire that ended hostilities between Hizbollah and Israel. While challenges remain regarding Hizbollah’s disarmament and the integration of displaced populations, the newly elected leadership must take decisive action to promote stability. The involvement of external actors, notably the U.S., should focus on strengthening Lebanese institutions rather than exacerbating existing tensions. A balanced approach toward Hizbollah is essential for long-term peace in Lebanon.
Original Source: reliefweb.int
