Egypt’s influence over the Palestinian issue has waned since the Camp David Accords, particularly post-2013. Gulf states, notably Saudi Arabia, have risen to prominence and shaped regional dynamics. Sisi’s regime prioritizes relations with these states at the potential expense of Palestinian rights, complicating Egypt’s strategic interests in Gaza. The risk of mass displacement of Palestinians could irrevocably alter Egypt’s demographic and political landscape.
Since the Camp David Accords in 1978, Egypt has held significant influence over the Palestinian cause, particularly after moving away from direct confrontation with Israel. However, after the 2013 military coup, Egypt’s influence waned as its economy faltered and it accumulated debt. This situation allowed Gulf nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, to gain prominence in regional issues, including mediating Palestinian concerns and providing financial support to Cairo.
Under President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Egypt’s foreign policy shifted to prioritize the interests of his regime and supporters over national security. This shift was evident when Egypt ceded the strategic Tiran and Sanafir islands to Saudi Arabia in exchange for support, leading to a redefined national security concept influenced significantly by Gulf states.
The Gulf monarchies view Islamist groups as threats, a perspective that aligns with Egypt’s stance against Hamas, which it considers a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. Despite Hamas distancing itself from the Brotherhood, Egyptian authorities persist with their adversarial view, especially following the recent Hamas attack on Israel, where alignment with Gulf states and Israel has coincided.
In an effort to eliminate Hamas, Egypt has tightened controls over the Rafah border crossing, aiming for a restructuring of governance in Gaza that could see the Palestinian Authority take over. This has sparked fears regarding the potential mass displacement of Palestinians to Sinai, fundamentally jeopardizing the hopes for an independent Palestinian state.
The geopolitical dynamics surrounding Gaza have drastically shifted, with the exodus of Palestinians to Sinai posing security and demographic threats to Egypt. Such moves could be interpreted as Egypt’s complicity in undermining the Palestinian cause, leading to further instability within the region, both economically and socially.
Sisi faces uncertainty regarding his political future, compounded by the need for support from external powers, notably under a potential future Trump administration. Queries abound over whether he would accept a displacement plan to secure his regime’s continuation, a notion that raises concerns among Egyptian military leadership, who may resist political compromises that jeopardize national sovereignty.
Ultimately, the situation in Gaza is inextricably linked to Egypt’s national interests; any resolution will directly impact Egypt’s security and influence within regional power dynamics. Cairo must navigate its role carefully to maintain relevance and uphold its interests amid evolving geopolitical landscapes.
In conclusion, Egypt’s historic role in the Palestinian issue has been challenged by shifting geopolitical alliances and internal dynamics following the 2013 military coup. President Sisi’s alignment with Gulf states and the changing perception of Hamas illustrate a complex relationship that could dictate the future of Palestinians in Gaza and the broader implications for Egypt’s national security. As regional powers redefine their influence, the stability of both Egypt and Palestine hangs in the balance.
Original Source: www.middleeasteye.net
