Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics plans to release new rebased CPI and GDP reports, anticipated to show real growth. Analyst Esili Eigbe warns that changes may not alleviate inflation pressures. The rebased GDP should be viewed as a statistical update rather than a solution to structural economic issues, necessitating a cautious approach to monetary policy.
Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics prepares to unveil revised consumer price index (CPI) and gross domestic product (GDP) reports. Analysts anticipate that these updated figures will signify real economic growth and could sway the Monetary Policy Committee’s decisions. During a discussion with CNBC Africa, Esili Eigbe, Director at Escap Management, emphasized the importance of interpreting these figures in the context of broader economic challenges.
Esili Eigbe pointed out that despite potential adjustments to the CPI, these may not relieve pressure on monetary authorities as some aspects could actually lead to increased inflation. While lower food prices might emerge, escalating service costs could overshadow such benefits, complicating inflation management. Consequently, the repercussions of service costs on CPI are likely to manifest gradually, making their impact on inflation multifaceted.
He further clarified that the rebasing of GDP should be perceived mainly as a statistical exercise rather than a fix for deep-rooted economic issues such as inflation, currency volatility, and unemployment. Policymakers must focus on comprehensively addressing these challenges through targeted actions rather than relying solely on updated GDP statistics.
Esili also exercised caution regarding expectations of a swift shift from a hawkish to a dovish monetary policy stance. Even though improved economic indicators may present themselves, a strategic and gradual approach to policy adjustments is vital. This careful navigation will help maintain financial market stability amidst uncertainties.
In terms of currency dynamics, Esili recognized recent positive trends in the Naira’s exchange rate while stressing the need for continuous vigilance regarding inflation control and growth sustainability. He advised against complacency, underscoring that prudent monetary policies are essential to protect currency stability as Nigeria awaits the pivotal CPI and GDP reports.
The upcoming release of rebased consumer price index (CPI) and gross domestic product (GDP) reports by Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics is highly anticipated. Analysts expect these reports to reflect genuine economic growth, which could influence decisions made by the Monetary Policy Committee. Discussions around these changes illuminate the complexities in interpreting economic data and their implications for monetary policy and broader economic reforms.
In conclusion, while Nigeria’s rebased GDP and CPI reports may indicate growth, they do not alleviate the underlying economic challenges facing the country. The implications for monetary policy must be approached with caution, prioritizing a strategic response to inflation and currency stability. The need for sustained and targeted interventions remains crucial to fostering real and sustainable economic progress in Nigeria.
Original Source: www.cnbcafrica.com
