Amid Iran’s declining influence, Azerbaijan and Turkey are pushing the Zangezur corridor project to establish a direct trade route that also aims to connect to Europe. Iran and Armenia oppose the initiative due to territorial concerns. Observers note that a weakened Iran could benefit negotiations between regional powers. The current uncertainties in U.S. foreign policy may offer further opportunities for Ankara and Baku.
Azerbaijan and Turkey are intensifying their collaboration amidst a declining influence of Iran in the region. Following setbacks for Tehran in Syria and Lebanon, Baku and Ankara are advancing the Zangezur corridor project, aiming to establish a trade link that bypasses Iranian interests, as this route would travel through Armenian territory. This corridor is vital for creating a direct economic route between Azerbaijan and Turkey, enhancing trade connectivity aimed at linking China and Europe.
In response to increased Azerbaijani and Turkish activities, Iran has expressed strong opposition to the proposed 40-kilometer corridor due to concerns that it would obstruct an essential transit route for Iran, which it relies upon to circumvent international sanctions. Armenia, allied with Iran, also opposes the corridor’s implementation. Nonetheless, the internal weakening of Iran due to international pressures offers Baku and Ankara a unique opportunity to realize their infrastructural ambitions.
Atilla Yesilada from GlobalSource Partners observes, “A weaker Iran is a huge opportunity for Turkey in the Caucasus.” He further suggests that Armenia’s opposition stems from promises made by Iran to militarily support it. However, with Iran’s position becoming increasingly precarious, Azerbaijan and Turkey may be inclined to overlook Tehran’s threats.
Despite Iran’s historic resistance, some analysts propose that Iran may reconsider its stance as it seeks stronger regional partnerships amid vulnerabilities. Huseyin Bagci from Ankara’s Middle East Technical University states, “It would be good for Iran if the Zangezur corridor is opened,” advocating that better relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey could be crucial for Tehran’s geopolitical strategy.
As tensions evolve, Iran seemed to soften its opposition, with a senior diplomat suggesting that opposing the Zangezur corridor may no longer be a priority. This shift occurred alongside growing ties with Moscow, which supports the corridor as a means to navigate around sanctions and expand its logistical network from north to south, prioritizing the development of new trade routes.
The United States’ position on the corridor remains unclear, particularly following joint military exercises between the U.S. and Armenia, which indicates a reinforcement of alliances. Analysts like Eric Hacopian caution that the current geopolitical chaos facilitated by the Trump administration could allow Azerbaijan and Turkey to take unforeseen actions with less scrutiny.
In recent developments, Azerbaijan’s military secured victories against Armenian forces in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, yet a comprehensive peace agreement remains elusive. Asli Aydintasbas from the Brookings Institution argues that if Turkey prioritizes peacemaking efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it could lead to diplomatic gains exceeding those from the Zangezur corridor.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan envisions establishing close ties with President Trump, especially given his commitment to supporting President Ilham Aliyev in their mutual goal of transforming their nations into a significant bridge for trade between Europe and China.
The geopolitical dynamics in the Caucasus region have shifted with Azerbaijan and Turkey emerging as influential partners amidst Iran’s diminished regional clout. The Zangezur corridor, a proposed trade route, symbolizes this collaboration, aiming to connect Azerbaijan with Turkey and enhance trade links between Europe and Asia. This initiative is particularly significant given the complex territorial disputes involving Armenia and the geopolitical tensions following Iran’s setbacks in neighboring countries.
In summary, Azerbaijan and Turkey are strategically advancing the Zangezur corridor amid Iran’s decline, underscoring a shift in regional power dynamics. Iran’s reduced influence presents an opportunity for both countries to enhance their economic connectivity, despite opposition from Armenia. As the international political landscape evolves, the reactions of major players, including the U.S. and Russia, will be critical in shaping the outcome of this corridor project, with potential implications for regional stability.
Original Source: www.rfi.fr
