Carmit Valensi advocates for Israel to establish clear conditions for its withdrawal from Syria, warning against extended military presence. As the EU moves toward normalizing relations with the new Syrian regime under Julani, Israel must navigate increased pressures for withdrawal. Valensi recommends a strategic focus on stabilization, diplomatic engagement, and security assurances to protect Israeli interests in the Golan Heights.
Carmit Valensi, head of the Northern Arena program at the Institute for National Security Studies and a former IDF intelligence officer, emphasized the necessity for Israel to set clear conditions for any withdrawal from its buffer zone in Syria. She cautioned that extending Israel’s presence beyond six months could become counterproductive, suggesting that Israel’s Syria policy must adapt to evolving circumstances in the region.
Following the European Union’s recent announcement of a roadmap to lift sanctions against Syria, aimed at encouraging a more democratic governance under Abu Mohammed al-Julani, Israel faces increased pressure to withdraw from Syrian territory. Julani, who led a coup against President Bashar al-Assad, claims his regime will respect the longstanding armistice with Israel, which may complicate Israel’s strategic position in the area.
In light of Julani’s past affiliations with al-Qaeda, the Israel Defense Forces established a buffer zone along the border after the fall of Assad’s regime. This includes defensive measures such as trenches and facilities enhancing winter readiness for IDF soldiers. Defense Minister Israel Katz supports maintaining the buffer zone indefinitely to secure Israeli interests.
In her analysis, Valensi advocated for Israel to strive for stabilization in Syria under a moderate regime to mitigate Iranian influence and eliminate terrorist threats. This entails developing a new border defense strategy and uniform arrangements with the UN peacekeeping force, potentially seeking cooperation with Turkey to strengthen security measures in the region.
Valensi proposed initiating preliminary dialogues with the new Syrian administration to ensure Israel’s security interests, particularly in the Golan Heights. Previous engagements with rebel groups during the civil war, including medical assistance for some, have led to productive interactions, necessitating ongoing discreet contacts with HTS-affiliated officials.
Additionally, Valensi suggested Israel clarify its temporary military presence in Syria through diplomatic channels and stipulate conditions for a potential withdrawal. This would involve ensuring stability along the border, preventing infiltration from Syria, and curbing Hezbollah’s arms smuggling channels.
Other proposed conditions include managing extremist influences and safeguarding minority rights in the region, alongside fostering collaboration with positive Syrian elements through humanitarian initiatives. Establishing partnerships with Turkey, enhancing dialogue with Jordan and Gulf states, and forming an international committee with key powers could yield constructive outcomes.
In conclusion, Valensi urged Israel to blend robust security measures with diplomatic strategies, highlighting this period as a unique opportunity to enhance regional stability, elevate Israel’s international stature, and bolster national security against future threats from Syria.
The ongoing conflict in Syria has resulted in a complex geopolitical landscape, drawing in various regional and international actors. Israel’s strategic interests in the Golan Heights necessitate a careful approach to military presence and diplomatic negotiations, especially with the changing dynamics following the collapse of the Assad regime. The recent ascent of Julani’s governance poses both challenges and potential openings for redefining Israel’s northern border defense strategy. As Israel navigates this evolving situation, it must balance its security needs with the broader regional implications, including dealing with potential Iranian aggression and the activities of various militant groups. The lifting of sanctions by the West adds pressure for Israel to reassess its stance towards Syria, especially with calls for establishing relations with the new regime. Valensi’s proposals encapsulate the necessity for proactive engagement to ensure that Israeli interests are supported while simultaneously promoting stability within Syria and addressing humanitarian concerns.
The article outlines key recommendations for Israel’s future actions concerning its military presence in Syria. Carmit Valensi stresses the importance of establishing a withdrawal strategy contingent upon security conditions and fostering collaborative diplomatic relations with regional players. By thoughtfully addressing security and humanitarian dimensions, Israel has the potential to stabilize its borders and improve its geopolitical standing in an increasingly volatile region.
Original Source: www.jpost.com
