Recent studies show that while the annual occurrence of tropical cyclones remains constant at approximately 47, their intensity has significantly increased. Average wind speeds have risen, along with a higher incidence of category five storms, correlating with warnings from the IPCC regarding the impact of climate change. The 2024 cyclone season reflected these trends, resulting in humanitarian crises.
The frequency of tropical cyclones has remained stable at an average of 47 annually since 1980. However, recent analyses indicate a troubling increase in storm intensity. Specifically, data comparing 1981-2010 to the last decade reveals that maximum wind speeds average 192 kph today, a 5 percent rise. Furthermore, the proportion of storms exceeding 250 kph has escalated, growing from 10% to 14%, highlighting a significant rise in category five cyclones. These findings align with projections from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which warned that climate change will likely contribute to higher intensities of destructive cyclones. In 2024, 42 tropical cyclones occurred, with the most powerful Hurricane Milton achieving wind speeds of 278 kph. The West Pacific faced considerable impact, experiencing numerous typhoons, particularly in the Philippines. Moreover, Cyclone Chido struck Mayotte, leaving a significant humanitarian toll with at least 39 fatalities and over 4,000 injuries, illustrating the dire consequences of such intensified weather events.
The data reflects an essential aspect of climate science, particularly concerning the relationship between climate change and extreme weather patterns. Cyclones, categorized as hurricanes or typhoons based on their geographic location, have been closely monitored by institutions such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). In light of increasing global temperatures and shifting climate conditions, understanding the changes in cyclone frequency and intensity is crucial for preparedness and disaster response efforts.
In summary, although the number of tropical cyclones has not increased, their intensity has risen markedly over the past decade. The increase in maximum wind speeds and the growing number of devastating category five storms underscore the profound impact of climate change on weather patterns. This situation highlights the urgent need for enhanced disaster preparedness in vulnerable regions, as emphasized by experts in the field. The upcoming years will likely present increased challenges unless substantial measures are taken to mitigate climate change effects.
Original Source: www.rfi.fr
