A study by Imperial College London found that climate change significantly increased the strength of Cyclone Chido, raising the likelihood of similar cyclones by 40% by 2024. The cyclone, classified as a Category 4 storm, caused extensive destruction in Mayotte, which may face a rising death toll in the aftermath. Enhanced atmospheric and oceanic conditions due to global warming contribute to the severity of such storms.
A recent preliminary study conducted by scientists from Imperial College London has indicated that climate change has significantly intensified Cyclone Chido as it approached the Indian Ocean archipelago of Mayotte. The assessment revealed that cyclones of similar strength as Chido are now estimated to be 40 percent more likely in the warmer climate projected for 2024, compared to pre-industrial times. Chido has been classified as a category four storm, representative of the second highest level on a five-point scale, and made landfall on Saturday, resulting in substantial destruction in Mayotte, especially impacting areas populated by those living in makeshift housing.
The aftermath of Cyclone Chido has yet to be fully assessed; however, officials have expressed grave concerns that the death toll could escalate into the thousands. The Imperial College London scientists employed an advanced computer modeling approach due to the limited availability of real-world data. This model simulated millions of tropical cyclones, allowing them to draw conclusions regarding the influence of climate change on storm intensity, recommending that wind speeds in the region near where Chido made landfall had surged by 3 miles per second relative to climate conditions before the onset of widespread fossil fuel combustion.
The study underscores that climate change has effectively elevated Chido’s intensity from a Category 3 to a Category 4 storm. Although France’s weather service has not definitively linked Chido’s power to global warming, it did acknowledge that human-induced climate change has led to more fierce storms due to warmer oceanic temperatures. Furthermore, it has been noted that warmer atmospheric conditions increase the moisture capacity of air, enhancing the potential for severe weather incidents, particularly those involving tropical storms.
The intersection of climate change and natural disasters, particularly tropical storms, has become a critical area of study as scientific consensus increasingly points to rising global temperatures as a contributing factor in the intensity and frequency of such events. Cyclone Chido serves as a pertinent case study in this field, particularly as it struck Mayotte, an impoverished archipelago in the Indian Ocean. This territory has seen significant damage from climate-related events, and the impact of Cyclone Chido serves to illustrate the tangible consequences of shifting climate patterns, not only on the environment but also on vulnerable human populations.
The findings from Imperial College London’s study suggest a concerning correlation between climate change and the heightened intensity of cyclones such as Chido. Given that storms of this magnitude are increasingly likely due to warming climate conditions, it is imperative to recognize the broader implications for disaster preparedness and response strategies, particularly in regions like Mayotte that are susceptible to extreme weather events. As the world confronts escalating climate impacts, such studies underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate action.
Original Source: www.rfi.fr
