The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria presents both opportunities and challenges for Turkey. While Erdogan’s government seeks to extend its regional influence and manage the Kurdish issue, uncertainties abound regarding future governance in Syria and the potential return of millions of refugees. Turkey’s role in the conflict highlights its strategic ambitions and the complexities of regional politics post-Assad.
The recent ousting of Bashar al-Assad in Syria marks a significant shift in the balance of power within the region, offering both increased influence for Turkey and substantial challenges for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. As the main backer of rebel forces, Erdogan’s proactive stance against Assad was exemplified when he sought cooperation with the Syrian leader, which was rebuffed, ultimately sealing Assad’s fate as rebel forces advanced towards the capital. In the aftermath, Turkey has positioned itself as a key beneficiary amid the turmoil and is now focused on managing its interests in the newly destabilized Syria.
The Syrian conflict has long posed a strategic dilemma for Turkey, particularly concerning the Kurdish populations. Erdogan aims to prevent any Kurdish autonomy near the Turkish border, which he equates with terrorism, particularly with groups like the YPG that he views as linked to the PKK. The swift takeover of northern territories by Turkish-backed rebels following Assad’s fall signals Turkey’s intent to reinforce its border security and extend its territorial control.
Didier Billion of the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs elucidates that Turkey has maintained a covert yet influential role in the rebels’ advances, having stationed troops in Idlib province since 2017. This military presence, coupled with intelligence collaborations, has enabled Turkey to orchestrate events on the ground. Moving ahead, Erdogan’s primary focus remains on pushing Kurdish forces further south and establishing a secure zone along the lengthy Syrian-Turkish border.
The issue of Syrian refugees in Turkey also weighs heavily on Erdogan, particularly in the political landscape following recent elections. With over 3 million refugees residing in Turkey, the question of returning them to Syria looms large. Although some may return in the wake of Assad’s ouster, the overall situation remains precarious, and many are reluctant to leave Turkey due to lingering fears about safety in Syria.
In terms of foreign relations, Turkey’s dynamic with Russia has shifted as both nations navigate their respective interests in Syria’s new landscape. The recent developments suggest that Turkey is likely to emerge in a favorable position, but the future course will be contingent upon the new Syrian leadership’s approach towards cooperation with Turkey concerning Kurdish representation and governance.
In summary, while Turkey’s influence is poised to grow in the short-term following Assad’s downfall, the long-term implications will significantly hinge on the policies enacted by the newly established Syrian government. Erdogan’s administration appears ready to exploit the current disarray to bolster its regional standing, though uncertainties remain regarding future governance and the rights of Kurds within a restructured Syria.
The backdrop to this analysis is the ongoing conflict in Syria, which has seen multiple factions vie for control and influence since the uprising against Assad began in 2011. Turkey has taken a particular interest in the situation, partly due to its historical rivalry with the Assad regime and its concerns over Kurdish forces, which it fears may incite separatism among its own Kurdish population. The geopolitical landscape has evolved significantly, especially with Turkey’s direct military involvement and its hosting of millions of Syrian refugees, which have turned into both a humanitarian issue and a domestic political concern for Erdogan’s government.
In conclusion, the fall of Bashar al-Assad presents Turkey with both opportunities and challenges as it seeks to expand its influence while managing complex relationships with Syria’s various factions, including the Kurds. The strategic ambition of Erdogan’s administration is clear, yet the unpredictable dynamics of Syrian politics will play a crucial role in shaping Turkey’s future engagements in the region. The stabilization of Syria may rely heavily on the new government’s willingness to negotiate and integrate diverse groups, particularly the Kurds, into the national framework.
Original Source: www.france24.com
