A new UNCCD study indicates that over 77% of Earth’s land has become permanently drier over the past 30 years, with significant expansions in drylands. Climate change is identified as the primary cause, threatening the livelihoods of billions and potentially displacing communities. Urgent collective action is required to mitigate these changes and adapt to the evolving climate scenario.
A recent study conducted by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) reveals that over three-quarters of the Earth’s land has become permanently drier over the past three decades. Specifically, 77.6% of land experienced drier climates from 1990 to 2020, indicating a significant shift compared to the previous thirty years. The total area classified as drylands expanded by approximately 4.3 million square kilometers, which is nearly a third larger than India. Notably, over 40% of the global landmass, excluding Antarctica, is now categorized as drylands, a remarkable increase from 37.5% over the last thirty years, highlighting a stark trend regardless of extreme weather events such as floods and storms.
Experts have raised alarms over what they describe as an “existential crisis” that could impact five billion people by the century’s end. Should greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked, projections indicate that an additional 3% of humid zones will transition to drylands. Areas facing increased aridity include significant portions of the Midwestern United States, parts of Mexico, and extensive regions across southern Africa and Australia. The findings were disclosed during the 16th conference of UNCCD’s nearly 200 parties held in Saudi Arabia (COP16), emphasizing the urgency of addressing the climate crisis.
Ibrahim Thiaw, the UNCCD Executive Secretary, stated, “This analysis finally dispels an uncertainty that has long surrounded global drying trends. For the first time, the aridity crisis has been documented with scientific clarity, revealing an existential threat affecting billions around the globe.” He contrasted the nature of aridity with temporary droughts, asserting that climatic changes leading to increased dryness are irreversible, fundamentally altering life on Earth.
Human-induced climate change is identified as the primary factor driving this transition. The emissions arising from various human activities, including electricity generation, transportation, and changes in land use, contribute significantly to the increase in global temperatures and shifts in rainfall patterns. Data from the Global Aridity Index indicates extensive changes across many regions, particularly in Europe, parts of the western United States, and central Africa.
Despite these alarming trends, less than a quarter of the global land (22.4%) recorded wetter conditions, predominantly in the central United States, Angola, and some areas of Southeast Asia. The report highlights that South Sudan and Tanzania are experiencing the highest percentages of land moving toward dryland classification, with China showing the largest total area shifting from non-drylands.
Looking ahead, projections about the global climate indicate alarming consequences, with estimates suggesting up to five billion individuals could reside in drylands by 2100. This may prompt forced migration, as communities struggle with diminished water resources and agricultural viability, exacerbating social and political challenges. Barron Orr, the Chief Scientist of UNCCD, remarked, “For decades, the world’s scientists have signaled that our growing greenhouse gas emissions are behind global warming. Now, for the first time, a UN scientific body is warning that burning fossil fuels is causing permanent drying across much of the world, too.”
Nichole Barger, chair of the UNCCD Science-Policy Interface, emphasized the need for immediate collective action, stating, “Without concerted efforts, billions face a future marked by hunger, displacement, and economic decline. Yet, by embracing innovative solutions and fostering global solidarity, humanity can rise to meet this challenge. The question is not whether we have the tools to respond – it is whether we have the will to act.”
The increasing aridity of the Earth’s land surface is a pressing global issue influenced primarily by climate change, resulting from human activity. Climate change has not only altered weather patterns but also exacerbated environmental conditions leading to extensive land drying, significantly impacting ecosystems and human populations. As regions transition to drylands, the socio-economic dynamics shift, leading to potential humanitarian crises, forced migrations, and fundamental transformations in land usage and agricultural practices. This alarming trend was documented comprehensively by the UNCCD as part of its broader mission to address desertification and land degradation.
In conclusion, the study conducted by the UNCCD reveals a sobering reality regarding the state of the Earth’s land, emphasizing the urgent need for solutions to combat the pervasive issue of increasing aridity driven by climate change. With over 40% of global land now classified as drylands and projections indicating dire consequences for billions of people, addressing this existential threat is paramount. The call for global solidarity and immediate action is not merely advisory but critical to mitigate the impacts of climate change and secure a sustainable future for the planet.
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