A potential hurricane named Sara may be approaching Florida, increasing the odds of it becoming just the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the state in November. Historically, only three hurricanes have done so since records began, indicating an unusual trend linked to rising ocean temperatures that may enhance hurricane activity later in the season.
Recent developments indicate that a storm brewing in the Caribbean may soon be named Sara, with the potential to impact Florida as a hurricane next week. If this occurs, it would mark the fourth hurricane to strike the state in a single season, with two of them classified as major hurricanes. This phenomenon is significant, as three major hurricanes making landfall in Florida within the same year has occurred only once before, specifically in 2004. If Sara makes landfall, it would become merely the fourth hurricane to affect Florida in November since hurricane records began, and the fifth to impact the continental United States over the last 173 years. Historically, only three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida throughout November since the commencement of official record-keeping: an unnamed hurricane in 1935, Hurricane Kate in 1985, and Hurricane Nicole in 2022, with a fourth occurring in North Carolina back in 1851. Typically, the waters are cooler by late November, which reduces the necessary energy for hurricane formation. However, current ocean temperatures remain elevated, akin to those seen in September and October. Notably, Ryan Truchelut of WeatherTiger has observed, “Total oceanic heat content of the Gulf has slightly increased in the last three weeks, hovering around mid-October norms.” The storms previously affecting Florida in late November include: – Hurricane Nicole (2022) – Peak Strength: Category 1 with winds of 75 mph – Landfall Date: November 10 – Damages: Estimated $1 billion across several regions, including Florida, resulting in 11 indirect fatalities, five in Florida. – Hurricane Kate (1985) – Peak Strength: Category 3 with winds of 120 mph – Landfall Date: November 22 – Damages: Estimated $700 million in damages, with 15 fatalities in the affected regions. – The Yankee Hurricane (1935) – Peak Strength: Category 2 with winds of 105 mph – Landfall Date: November 4 – Damages: Estimated $5.5 million in damages and 19 fatalities. According to NOAA records, November also sees the arrival of nine tropical storms in Florida, including storms that weakened before landfall. Although several hurricanes have developed in November, notably Hurricane Eta in 2020 and Hurricane Otto in 2016, these storms did not make landfall in the United States as hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season officially spans from June 1 to November 30, although tropical storms can form at any time and can pose threats even in late fall.
The frequency of hurricanes impacting Florida, especially in November, is a subject of increasing concern due to the implications of warmer ocean temperatures. As climate change alters weather patterns, warmer sea temperatures have the potential to extend hurricane activity beyond the traditional peak months, which may have significant consequences for coastal regions. The historical record of November hurricanes in Florida reveals a rare but concerning trend, emphasizing the need for ongoing monitoring and preparedness efforts as the climate evolves, impacting ocean temperatures and, consequently, hurricane formation.
In summary, if the predicted storm Sara becomes a hurricane and makes landfall in Florida, it would mark a significant occurrence for the state. With only three hurricanes historically landing in November, an increase in ocean temperatures could lead to more late-season hurricanes, necessitating vigilance and preparedness among Floridians. This unusual pattern is an indicator of shifting climatic conditions that warrant close observation as they unfold.
Original Source: www.staugustine.com
