The gathering of Arab and Islamic leaders in Saudi Arabia revives speculation on Donald Trump’s possible return to the presidency and its impact on Middle Eastern politics. While Gulf nations perceive Trump as a source of stability, his previous actions regarding Iran and Israel create a complex legacy. Recent reconciliations between Saudi Arabia and Iran further complicate the geopolitical landscape, creating a blend of optimism and uncertainty as regional leaders advocate for peace amidst ongoing conflicts.
Leaders from numerous Arab and Islamic nations are convening in Saudi Arabia amidst considerable speculation regarding the potential implications of a second Donald Trump presidency for the Middle East. While many in Europe express concerns about Trump’s unpredictability, Gulf Arab nations largely view him as a stabilizing force. Prominent UAE businessman Khalaf al-Habtoor remarked, “In a Middle East where security is paramount, Trump’s focus on strengthening alliances and curbing extremist forces offers a way forward.” This sentiment is echoed in Saudi Arabia, where Trump is favored over President Joe Biden. Trump’s relationship with key Saudi leaders, especially Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is pivotal. Their connection, established through Jared Kushner, remains strong, even as Biden’s comments about Saudi Arabia being a pariah resonate negatively with its leadership. Trump’s tenure in office presents a mixed legacy for the region. On one hand, his recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel angered many Arabs, but on the other, he successfully facilitated the Abraham Accords, establishing formal ties between Israel and several Arab nations. Furthermore, Trump’s hawkish stance on Iran has remained consistent. By withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and supporting the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in 2020, Trump garnered favor among many Gulf Arab states. However, as the geopolitical landscape evolves, the current Middle East is markedly different from when Trump left office. With ongoing conflicts involving Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, and increased hostilities from Iran, the Biden administration is perceived as struggling to exert effective influence—particularly as Israel escalates military actions in Gaza and Lebanon. The potential return of Trump is expected to embolden Israel, offering it more leeway to engage militarily with Iranian targets, which the current U.S. administration has previously deemed off-limits. According to former Israeli intelligence officer Joshua Steinrich, “His staunch support for Israel and aggressive stance towards Iran’s destabilising efforts made him a key ally in the region, and his return to power is expected to intensify efforts to limit Iran’s influence.” In a notable shift, Saudi Arabia and Iran have recently brokered a reconciliation, mediated by China, indicating a willingness to set aside long-standing hostilities. Following years of conflict, Saudi Arabia’s military chief visited Tehran to discuss enhancing cooperation on security issues. This pivot reflects a growing realization among Gulf Arab states regarding their vulnerability to Iranian influence. As regional leaders gather for a summit advocating for peace in Gaza and Lebanon, the atmosphere is a blend of optimism and uncertainty about how Trump’s potential re-election could shape Middle Eastern dynamics.
The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is deeply influenced by past leadership decisions, particularly those made by former U.S. President Donald Trump. His initial presidency saw significant diplomatic developments, including the Abraham Accords, which fostered normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations. In contrast, the current Biden administration is perceived to be less impactful in influencing regional hostilities. The recent thawing of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, brokered by China, adds a further layer of complexity as regional leaders reassess their strategies. Against this backdrop, a summit in Saudi Arabia serves as a critical platform for discussing the future direction of Middle Eastern relations amid speculation about Trump’s impending return to power.
In summary, the anticipation surrounding a potential second Trump presidency brings forth both optimism and concern within the Middle East. Gulf states view Trump as a stabilizing leader, potentially resulting in greater support for Israel and increased tensions with Iran. However, recent developments, including the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, highlight a transformative period in regional politics. As leaders convene in Saudi Arabia to discuss pressing conflicts, the outcome of Trump’s potential return remains a focal point of speculation and strategic planning.
Original Source: www.bbc.com
