The defense pact between Somalia and Egypt has strained relations with Ethiopia, complicating the joint effort against al-Shabaab and threatening Somalia’s political stability. This may hinder the AU’s peacekeeping mission and facilitate al-Shabaab’s resurgence in the region. International intervention is critical to mediate the tensions and prevent further destabilization.
The recent defense agreement between Somalia and Egypt has exacerbated tensions with Ethiopia, directly undermining collective efforts to combat al-Shabaab, the jihadist group that has perpetuated violence in Somalia. Despite earlier military advances against al-Shabaab, the group continues to hold significant territory, fueled by internal conflicts among anti-al-Shabaab entities. This new Egypt-Somalia pact may threaten the fragile peacekeeping mission led by the African Union, jeopardizing the coordination necessary to maintain stability in the region. The current security landscape in Somalia is precarious, with the ATMIS peacekeeping mission’s mandate due to expire at the end of the year. Ethiopia’s military presence, essential in countering al-Shabaab, may be undermined as the Somali government seeks to replace Ethiopian troops with Egyptian ones. Challenges associated with Egypt’s military involvement, compounded by its historical rivalry with Ethiopia, could potentially lead to a vacuum allowing al-Shabaab to regain strength and control significant regions. As Somalia grapples with internal divisions exacerbated by external pressures, its state-building efforts are at risk. The diverging interests among Somalia’s federal and state entities highlight an increasing instability that al-Shabaab is likely to exploit. The ramifications of Somalia and Egypt’s relationship with Ethiopia could worsen the humanitarian situation and complicate international security assistance efforts.
The political backdrop of Somalia has been characterized by ongoing disputes with Ethiopia, primarily concerning territorial integrity and military assistance. Following a series of conflicts and misunderstandings, the formation of a military pact between Somalia and Egypt appears to threaten existing peacekeeping frameworks. Egypt, having its own security concerns linked to the Nile’s waters, has increased its diplomatic and military involvement in Somalia, potentially inciting further discord. Ethiopia plays a crucial role in Somalia’s security architecture, making the developments both pertinent and grave.
In summary, the pact between Egypt and Somalia risks destabilizing the existing security frameworks essential for combatting al-Shabaab and maintaining regional stability. The potential withdrawal of Ethiopian troops could create a power vacuum, while internal divisions could further exacerbate the security crisis. The European Union, along with other international actors, must facilitate dialogue to mitigate these tensions and enable a cohesive approach to security in Somalia, lest the region face a resurgence of al-Shabaab and related conflicts.
Original Source: ecfr.eu
