The Roanoke College Poll reveals Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 10 points in Virginia, with Tim Kaine ahead of Hung Cao by 11 points in the Senate race. The poll indicates low levels of undecided voters and highlights economic issues as paramount for respondents. Trust in Harris surpasses Trump on abortion, while sentiments about government impacts remain mixed. Voter enthusiasm is strong as Election Day approaches.
In the latest Roanoke College Poll conducted just days before the 2024 elections, Vice President Kamala Harris has expanded her lead over former President Donald Trump in Virginia, now holding a 10-point advantage at 51%-41%. Independent candidate Cornel West and Libertarian Chase Oliver both secure 2% of the projected vote, while Jill Stein of the Green Party garners 1%. In the accompanying U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine leads Republican Hung Cao 51% to 40%. The poll, administered by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) between October 25 and 29, 2024, engaged 851 likely registered voters and carries a margin of error of 4.6%. Overall, only 2% of voters remain undecided, with an additional 2% expressing intentions to vote for candidates not on the official ballot. Close to half of the respondents (47%) reported being nearly certain to vote, while 40% indicated they had already cast their ballots. Furthermore, a significant 85% of those yet to vote showed strong confidence in their choices. The preeminent issue for 43% of voters was the economy, followed by abortion concerns at 20% and immigration at 12%. Moreover, likely voters expressed greater trust in Harris regarding abortion issues, favoring her 57% to Trump’s 36%. On immigration, both candidates had equal support at 48%, with minor strengths shown by Harris in crime and foreign policy (49%-45%), whereas Trump was slightly preferred on economic matters (49%-46%). When questioned about their perception of candidate empathy, only 37% of respondents believed Trump understands their concerns compared to 46% for Harris. Perceptions regarding the direction of both Virginia and the nation remained stable in this survey, with 46% of respondents believing Virginia is on the right track, contrasted by 64% who perceive the country as heading in the wrong direction (a decrease from 71% in August). Job approval ratings showed a slight increase for President Biden (38%), while favorability ratings for both Trump (38% favorable and 54% unfavorable) and Biden (37% favorable and 50% unfavorable) remained low. In contrast, Senator Tim Kaine reported a favorable rating of 39%, while Hung Cao has a favorable rating of 28%, with nearly half of those surveyed undecided about him. Dr. Harry Wilson, the senior political analyst for IPOR, remarked that “Kamala Harris has increased the slim lead she held in the August Roanoke College Poll,” noting her 95% support from Democrats and a solid lead among independents. He emphasized the challenge Trump faces with such a minimal proportion of undecided voters and the necessity for massive GOP turnout on Election Day. The Roanoke College Poll, as a public service effort, demonstrates the evolving dynamics of the electoral landscape in Virginia as the final votes approach.
The Roanoke College Poll provides insights into voter preferences and sentiments in Virginia leading up to the critical 2024 elections. Conducted shortly before the elections, this poll reflects voter attitudes towards major candidates in both presidential and senatorial races, with an emphasis on key issues influencing decisions. The study captures public opinion on pressing topics such as the economy, abortion, and immigration, and gauges overall candidate favorability as well as perceptions of government impact on personal lives. This context is crucial for evaluating the shifting political landscape as election day nears.
The Roanoke College Poll indicates a favorable position for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in Virginia, as well as for Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine over his Republican challenger Hung Cao. With a minimal number of undecided voters, the results suggest a challenging uphill battle for Trump in securing victory. Key issues such as the economy and abortion are dominating voter concerns, shaping candidate perceptions as the elections approach.
Original Source: www.roanoke.edu
