Three potential areas of tropical development are being monitored, with low-pressure systems in the Caribbean showing some signs of formation this weekend. The southwestern Caribbean Sea and northeastern Caribbean Sea may see tropical depressions develop, with significant rainfall anticipated. A non-tropical low in the North Atlantic has low chances of becoming a tropical cyclone. The season ends on November 30th, and past hurricane occurrences in Florida during November are rare.
As of Thursday, October 31, 2024, meteorological observations indicate potential tropical developments in various regions, including the North Atlantic and the Caribbean, with particular attention being drawn to Southwest Florida. 1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea: There exists a substantial low-pressure area poised to evolve over the southwestern Caribbean Sea over the next few days. This may gradually lead to the formation of a tropical depression by the upcoming weekend or early next week as the system tends to move northward or northwestward within the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of the likelihood of further development, regions from Nicaragua to northern Colombia could experience significant rainfall in the coming days. Formation chances within the next 48 hours are low at 10 percent, but increase to 60 percent within the next 7 days. 2. Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles: A trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is generating considerable cloudiness and precipitation across the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, northern Leeward Islands, and the adjoining waters. Slow development is conceivable over the next few days as this system progresses west-northwestward toward the Greater Antilles. Subsequently, it is anticipated that this system may integrate into the aforementioned Caribbean low-pressure area. As with the first system, heavy rainfall is probable from the northern Leeward Islands extending through Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and into parts of eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas. Formation chances remain low at 10 percent for both the next 48 hours and the next seven days. The Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models suggest the likelihood of these low-pressure systems merging this weekend, possibly resulting in a depression emerging soon thereafter. Current modeling trends indicate a trajectory that may lead towards the Gulf of Mexico next week. However, the precise path and intensity remain uncertain, highly dependent on the behaviors of a high-pressure ridge east of Florida and an encroaching cold front. It should be noted that definitive models providing accurate paths will only be applicable once a tropical formation occurs. It is noteworthy that since 1851, only three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida during November: the 1935 Miami Hurricane, Hurricane Kate in 1985, and Hurricane Nicole in 2022. 3. North Atlantic: There is an ongoing storm-force non-tropical low pressure, situated approximately 550 miles west of the Azores, where showers and thunderstorms have recently emerged. Any progression toward subtropical or tropical cyclone development is anticipated to occur slowly as the system continues to shift eastward in the days ahead. Formation chances within the next 48 hours and seven days are both projected at a low 20 percent. The Atlantic hurricane season officially concludes on November 30th. Although the region is transitioning into a typical dry season, it remains imperative for residents and stakeholders to remain vigilant and consistently monitor the evolving weather conditions. In summary, close observation is warranted as three areas are being monitored for potential tropical development, with shifting forecasts.
This article provides a comprehensive overview of the current weather patterns associated with potential tropical developments in the Caribbean and North Atlantic during the end of October 2024. As the hurricane season approaches its conclusion on November 30th, the phenomena under development could significantly impact regions particularly in Southwest Florida. Historical context regarding November hurricane landfalls underscores the rarity of such events, while emphasizing the importance of preparedness and awareness.
To conclude, the meteorological landscape indicates the potential formation of tropical depressions in the Caribbean this weekend, necessitating continued vigilance. The dynamics of atmospheric pressures and fronts will influence the trajectory and intensity of these developing systems. Stakeholders and residents in affected areas are encouraged to remain informed and prepared as the season nears its end while monitoring for updates on these weather patterns.
Original Source: www.fox4now.com
