Forecasters are increasing their attention on a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic with a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression within a week. Expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by the end of the week, uncertainty remains regarding its exact path. A second disturbance near Central America poses a lower chance of development but may bring heavy rainfall to the region.
Forecasters from the National Hurricane Center have observed a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean, which has an increased potential for development into a tropical depression. As of Tuesday morning, the probability of this disturbance strengthening over the next seven days has risen to 60%, up from previous assessments. For the next two days, there is a 30% chance of it evolving into a tropical depression. Currently, this disturbance consists of a disorganized collection of thunderstorms with a notable swirl in the center. For it to officially become a tropical depression, it must intensify by accumulating more rainfall, a challenging task given its current location in a drier air mass. However, forecasters anticipate that as the system continues to progress westward, it may encounter moist air conducive to its development. The disturbance is expected to approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Thursday or Friday. Forecast models are divided regarding its trajectory, with some suggesting a westward path through Cuba, while others predict a northeast turn towards Florida or the Bahamas. Experts caution that such long-range predictions have limited reliability until the system is classified as a tropical depression, after which tracking and forecast accuracy are expected to improve. Another area of focus for the hurricane center is a separate disturbance situated off the coast of Central America, which carries a lower chance of formation of about 30% over the next week, and no likelihood for the next two days. Some models indicate that if it remains over water, it could develop into a tropical depression. However, anticipated paths suggest that it may ultimately drift back towards the coast of Central America. Regardless of its development, significant rainfall is forecasted across parts of Central America later in the week.
The article discusses a tropical disturbance monitored by forecasters from the National Hurricane Center that may develop into a storm affecting the Caribbean region. As hurricane season typically sees activity in the Atlantic, forecasters assign probabilities to these disturbances based on satellite images and atmospheric conditions. The analysis includes potential impacts on areas like the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, while also tracking another disturbance that poses a lesser threat. Understanding these systems is vital for preparedness in affected regions.
In conclusion, forecasters are closely monitoring a tropical disturbance with the potential for development into a tropical depression, particularly as it approaches the Caribbean later this week. While there is uncertainty regarding its track and intensity, the likelihood of significant rainfall in Central America remains a concern. Staying informed about these developments is crucial for residents of the impacted areas.
Original Source: www.miamiherald.com
