This report presents findings on internal displacement caused by floods in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan, highlighting that since 2008, floods have resulted in over 185 million internal displacements globally, with Africa experiencing about 29 million. It introduces a novel flood displacement risk model developed under the HABITABLE project to estimate future displacements. Utilizing a unique vulnerability assessment and a probabilistic approach, the study reveals that average annual displacement could increase by two to four times current levels, with potential for a ninefold rise in pessimistic scenarios for Sudan. The findings aim to support effective disaster risk reduction strategies and populate informed policy recommendations.
This report addresses the significant issue of internal displacement caused by floods in the Horn of Africa, specifically focusing on the countries of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan. Since 2008, floods have triggered over 185 million internal displacements globally, with Africa accounting for approximately 29 million of these incidents, making it the second most affected region worldwide. In an effort to better understand and predict future flood-induced displacements, this study introduces an innovative flood displacement risk model developed under the HABITABLE project’s Work Package 3. The model offers calibrated estimates of potential future displacements, which are crucial for the formulation of effective and targeted policies. A unique vulnerability assessment is integral to the methodology, taking into account both direct and indirect impacts on housing, livelihoods, and essential services—factors that are often overlooked in conventional risk models. Employing a probabilistic approach, the assessment integrates climatic, hydrological, and hydraulic modeling to determine the factors that lead to displacement. Through the use of cutting-edge technologies and a novel vulnerability assessment technique, the study delineates the displacement risk through metrics such as average annual displacement (AAD) and probable maximum displacement. The findings, which are examined under various current and future climate scenarios, reveal a potential increase in AAD of two to four times compared to existing conditions. In grim pessimistic scenarios, such as those pertaining to Sudan, the study indicates that risks could escalate up to ninefold. These insights are designed to guide both national and subnational disaster risk reduction strategies and assist in identifying regions vulnerable to large-scale displacements. Decision-makers are encouraged to utilize this information for informed risk management initiatives aimed at preventing and alleviating the impacts of displacement. The report concludes with strategic recommendations aimed at formulating comprehensive policies to mitigate flood-related displacement risks and safeguard affected populations.
The report sheds light on the pressing issue of flood-induced displacement in the Horn of Africa, emphasizing the troubling effects of climate-related disasters in the region. By analyzing the scope of internal displacement resulting from flooding, this study underscores the need for a proactive approach to disaster risk management. Given that Africa has experienced significant displacement due to floods over the past two decades and that the region continues to face escalating climate threats, understanding the risks associated with these displacements has become increasingly vital. The development of a specialized flood displacement risk model is a step towards addressing these challenges and formulating relevant policy responses that align with the realities of climate-induced migration.
In conclusion, the report emphasizes the alarming potential for increased internal displacements due to flooding in the Horn of Africa, particularly in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia. With the introduction of a novel risk model that integrates a comprehensive vulnerability assessment, the findings highlight the urgent need for risk-informed policies and disaster management strategies. If unaddressed, the risk of large-scale displacements could significantly exacerbate social and economic destabilization in these countries. Therefore, it is critical for decision-makers to utilize the insights provided by this report to enact effective measures aimed at reducing the impact of floods and safeguarding vulnerable populations.
Original Source: reliefweb.int
