Leaders of Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia have convened in Asmara, establishing an alliance aimed at countering Ethiopia’s ambitions amidst rising tensions. The summit’s outcome highlights strained relationships, particularly between Ethiopia and Somalia over territorial disputes, as well as longstanding disagreements between Ethiopia and Egypt regarding water rights and resource management. Notably, military cooperation between Egypt and Somalia has increased, raising concerns about future conflict in the region.
Recent diplomatic developments have led to the formation of an alliance among the leaders of Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea, who are convening in Asmara, the capital of Eritrea. This summit culminated in a joint statement underscoring the “respect for the sovereignty… and territorial integrity of the countries in the region,” a phrase that may subtly hint at Ethiopia’s ambitions for maritime access without directly naming the country. The relationship between Somalia and Ethiopia has soured due to a recent diplomatic disagreement, prompting Somalia to strengthen its ties with Egypt and Eritrea—both of whom have longstanding grievances against Ethiopia. Observers express concern that this rising tension could potentially escalate into conflict. Hassan Khannenje, the director of the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies, remarked, “This is an axis against [Ethiopian capital] Addis Ababa. I think it’s an attempt to bring the hate together in trying to increase pressure against Addis Ababa.” During a photo released post-summit, Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki was seen commuting with President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt and Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The three leaders collectively agreed to bolster Somali state institutions to tackle both internal and external complexities, enhancing the capacity of the Somali National Federal Army to combat terrorism. President Sisi’s visit to Asmara marks his inaugural trip to Eritrea, while President Mohamud has visited three times in the current year. Historically, Ethiopia has been a critical supporter of the Somali government in its struggle against the al-Qaeda-affiliated group al-Shabab. However, Somalia’s discontent stems from Ethiopian decisions to establish a preliminary agreement with Somaliland, a self-declared republic that Somalia claims as part of its territory. Additionally, Ethiopia and Egypt have been engaged in a prolonged dispute concerning the construction of a significant hydroelectric dam by Ethiopia on the Nile River, which Egypt perceives as a threat to its water supply. Recently, an Egyptian vessel delivered military supplies to Somalia, further solidifying military cooperation between the two nations. The once-promising relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which appeared to stabilize following a peace agreement in 2018, has faced renewed strains in the wake of the two-year civil war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. Eritrea supported Addis Ababa during this conflict but has been less enthusiastic about the subsequent peace accords established in 2022. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s declaration that Ethiopia aims to achieve access to a Red Sea port has only intensified frictions between the neighboring countries.
The geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa has been historically tumultuous, characterized by prolonged disputes and shifting alliances. The recent alignment of Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia against Ethiopia underscores the complexities and rivalries in the region. The summit held in Asmara signifies an unprecedented collaboration among countries that each have faced difficulties with Ethiopia, particularly regarding territorial claims and resource management. The dynamics of this alliance are fueled by historical grievances, ongoing military conflicts, and emerging security concerns, particularly against the backdrop of Ethiopia’s quest for maritime access and its previous commitments to stability in Somalia. The situation remains fluid, with potential implications for regional stability and security.
The emergence of a tripartite alliance among Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia against Ethiopia highlights the intricate geopolitical tensions in the Horn of Africa, fueled by historical grievances and recent diplomatic fallout. As these nations align their military and strategic interests against Ethiopia, the potential for conflict raises significant concerns. The region is at a critical juncture, where historical animosities and contemporary disputes may drastically alter the traditional balance of power. Moreover, the international community must closely monitor these developments to foster peace and stability in this pivotal area.
Original Source: www.bbc.com
