President Abdel Fattah El Sisi of Egypt and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia visited Eritrea amid rising tensions in the Horn of Africa, particularly between Egypt and Ethiopia over issues including the Blue Nile dam. Their discussions focused on enhancing bilateral ties and regional security. Egypt’s recent defense agreement with Somalia and talks with Eritrea indicate a strategic shift in an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.
On Thursday, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi of Egypt arrived in Eritrea’s capital, Asmara, following an invitation from his counterpart, Isaias Afwerki. The discussions are aimed at enhancing bilateral cooperation across various fields while simultaneously addressing the prevailing security situation in the Horn of Africa. Additionally, Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud visited Asmara with a delegation, signaling a unified approach amidst regional tensions. The timing of these meetings is noteworthy, given the increased volatility in the Horn of Africa due to ongoing conflicts and shifting alliances. Egypt’s relations with Ethiopia have particularly soured due to Ethiopia’s construction of a megadam on the Blue Nile, further exacerbated after Egypt and Somalia signed a defense agreement in August. This agreement has facilitated the shipment of arms from Cairo to Mogadishu, indicating a strategic partnership against a backdrop of rising tensions with Ethiopia. In light of this, Egyptian officials have engaged in talks with Eritrea, focusing on bolstering military and intelligence partnerships. This strategy has been articulated by Rakha Ahmed Hassan, a former aide in Egypt’s foreign ministry, who indicates that these actions are part of Egypt’s broader objective to strengthen its influence in the Horn of Africa amid its ongoing confrontation with Ethiopia. Eritrea’s historical rivalry with Ethiopia complicates the region’s dynamics. Following a fragile peace deal brokered in 2018, Eritrea cooperated with Ethiopia against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). However, relations have soured since Ethiopia’s 2022 agreement with the TPLF, which Eritrea perceives as neglecting its security concerns regarding the TPLF’s persistence as a viable force. Somalia’s relationship with Ethiopia has also deteriorated, particularly following a memorandum that allowed Ethiopia to establish military presence in Somaliland, a region with separatist aspirations. This development has drawn Somalia closer to Egypt, culminating in Somalia’s warning to expel Ethiopian troops after the conclusion of the African Union’s peacekeeping mandate. In a significant move, Egypt pledged to contribute troops to the renewed AU mission in Somalia, which has been interpreted as a tactical realignment to bolster its standing in the region against Ethiopia. Given the long-standing diplomatic ties between Egypt and Eritrea since Eritrea’s independence in 1993, their cooperative approach on security issues and trade continues to foster strategic resilience in the region.
The geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa has been considerably transformed due to various conflicts, particularly involving Ethiopia, Egypt, and Somalia. Tensions have notably escalated following Ethiopia’s construction of a dam on the Blue Nile river, a project that Egypt views as a direct threat to its water security. As Ethiopia signs agreements with Somalia regarding military cooperation, this has prompted Egypt to forge closer relations with both Somalia and Eritrea. This context necessitates an understanding of the historical rivalries, security concerns, and shifting alliances that are at play, particularly following the 2018 peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which only temporarily eased hostilities. Further complicating matters, the Somali government’s relations with Ethiopia were further strained due to recent bilateral agreements that threaten Somali sovereignty while encouraging separatist ambitions in Somaliland. The involvement of Egypt as a security partner has been a crucial counterbalance in the region, especially in light of the ongoing threat posed by Al Shabab and the need for stability in Somalia. This backdrop emphasizes the importance of diplomatic initiatives and military partnerships being pursued by leaders in the region in an effort to mitigate growing unrest and safeguard national interests, all while navigating complex historical relationships.
In conclusion, the meetings between the leaders of Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea underscore the intensifying geopolitical dynamics within the Horn of Africa. With rising tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia, alongside the fragile peace in Eritrea and the challenges facing Somalia, these diplomatic engagements represent a critical effort for stability in the region. Egypt’s strategy of bolstering ties with both Somalia and Eritrea reflects its broader ambition to counter Ethiopian influence and address regional security challenges, especially against the backdrop of the threats posed by Al Shabab and lingering separatist movements.
Original Source: www.thenationalnews.com
