Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi visited Eritrea to strengthen ties amid regional tensions, particularly concerning an emerging military alliance with Eritrea and Somalia at a time when Ethiopian relations with these states are deteriorating, complicating the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa tied to issues like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
On October 10, 2024, Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi arrived in Eritrea, welcomed by President Isaias Afwerki. This visit marks an important development amid escalating regional tensions as Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia work to forge a tripartite military alliance. The discussions during this meeting are anticipated to cover various topics, including peace in the Horn of Africa, the security of the Red Sea, and bilateral and regional matters of importance. The proposal of an alliance among Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia emerges at a particularly sensitive juncture for the Horn of Africa. Once optimistic relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have soured notably, following the earlier peace deal between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Afwerki in 2018. The recent suspension of flights and telecommunications signifies a deepening diplomatic estrangement. Therefore, this new tripartite alliance may further alienate Ethiopia, whose own relationship with Somalia has plummeted due to escalating diplomatic disputes, particularly regarding a Memorandum of Understanding involving Ethiopia and Somaliland. This evolving military alliance is especially noteworthy, given Ethiopia’s traditional role in fostering robust ties with Eritrea and Somalia. Prime Minister Abiy played a pivotal role in resolving the protracted conflict with Eritrea, an achievement that significantly contributed to his receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. However, recent political dynamics have thrust Ethiopia into a precarious position. Tensions with Somalia have escalated, following reports of military collaboration between Egypt and Somalia that Addis Ababa perceives as a direct affront to its regional authority. Consequently, the Ethiopian government has accused Somalia of collaborating with foreign forces in destabilizing the region, warning of potential exacerbation if the matter remains unaddressed. An additional point of contention is Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which approaches completion and has become a critical issue in regional negotiations. Egypt has consistently voiced its opposition to the project, fearing adverse effects on its historic share of Nile waters, while Ethiopia views the dam as instrumental for its energy needs and economic advancement. The burgeoning military ties between Egypt and Somalia, along with Eritrea, have further complicated matters in what is already a fractious situation. In the midst of these rising tensions, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud are currently in Asmara engaging in talks with President Afwerki. They are expected to deliberate on a diverse range of regional issues, with the aim of resolving ongoing conflicts that have strained their interactions. As Egypt fortifies its alliances with Eritrea and Somalia, Ethiopia faces increasing isolation. The disruption of flights and communications between Ethiopia and Eritrea casts a shadow over the discussions occurring in Asmara, highlighting the precarious nature of their relations. Once seen as a central figure in the regional quest for peace, Ethiopia now finds itself relegated to a position of observation as new alliances are formed, posing a potential threat to its influence in the Horn of Africa. As the leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia convene in Asmara, the prospect of Ethiopia’s role in regional affairs becomes increasingly uncertain. The impending completion of the GERD, combined with the rise of these new military alliances, underscores the complexities of the challenges that lie ahead for the Horn of Africa.
The article discusses the diplomatic relations in the Horn of Africa, specifically focusing on the visit of Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi to Eritrea. This visit is set against a backdrop of rising tensions among regional powers, specifically concerning Ethiopia’s historical role in promoting peace in the area and the emerging tripartite military alliance between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia. The dynamics between these nations have shifted considerably, affecting their bilateral relations, especially concerning issues like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the deteriorating ties between Ethiopia and Somalia.
In conclusion, President al-Sisi’s visit to Eritrea highlights shifting alliances in the Horn of Africa, with potential implications for Ethiopia’s regional influence. The establishment of a military alliance involving Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia occurs amid growing tensions, notably surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Ethiopia’s increasing isolation signals a new chapter in regional dynamics, raising questions regarding its future role and the stability of the Horn of Africa.
Original Source: addisinsight.net
