A new study published in *Nature* reveals that exceeding the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit may lead to irreversible climate damages, such as rising sea levels. It emphasizes that compensating for overshoot scenarios through net-negative emissions is critical, urging immediate action by governments to reduce emissions and meet ambitious climate goals ahead of the 2024 summit in Brazil.
Recent research published in Nature indicates that while it may be possible to reverse the rise of global temperatures after temporarily exceeding the Paris Agreement’s threshold of 1.5°C, certain climate impacts resulting from peak warming, such as rising sea levels, may be irreversible. The study, which spans three and a half years and is supported by the European innovation fund HORIZON2020, explores various ‘overshoot’ scenarios where global temperatures may briefly surpass the 1.5°C limit before declining, achieved through net-negative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, the lead researcher and Group Leader at the Integrated Climate Impacts Research Group in the IIASA Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, emphasizes that overshooting will not yield the same climatic outcomes as consistently adhering to the 1.5°C guideline. He states, “Only by doing much more in this critical decade to bring emissions down and peak temperatures as low as possible, can we effectively limit damages.” The study further explains the implications of the duration and intensity of temperature increases. The research points to the need for international urgency in mitigating emissions, noting that achieving net-zero emissions sooner leads to reduced peak temperatures and thereby alleviates the risks associated with irreversible climate impacts. Joeri Rogelj, a co-author and Director of Research at the Grantham Institute, states, “This underscores the importance of countries submitting ambitious new reduction pledges, or so-called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), well ahead of next year’s climate summit in Brazil.” Additionally, the study outlines the necessity of developing robust carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methodologies to mitigate potential overshooting consequences. Gaurav Ganti, another co-author, states, “There’s no way to rule out the need for large amounts of net negative emissions capabilities, so we really need to minimize our residual emissions.” In summary, researchers stress the urgency for governments to take immediate action to curb emissions and adopt aggressive strategies aimed at achieving net-zero objectives.
The topic of climate change and the challenges surrounding the Paris Agreement’s goals has emerged as a critical issue facing global leaders. The 1.5°C increase in global temperatures is seen as a benchmark to prevent catastrophic climate-related damages. The concept of ‘overshooting’ refers to the potential temporary exceedance of this threshold and raises concerns regarding the long-term implications of such occurrences. The study in question, backed by substantial research funding, examines the risks associated with overshooting and emphasizes the urgency for nations to enhance their climate actions to avert irreversible damages and mitigate the potential consequences of heightened global warming.
In conclusion, the recent study underscores the complex interplay between climate policy and the likelihood of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold, highlighting the irreversible nature of certain climate damages. It calls for immediate and expansive action from governments to ensure early emissions reductions and robust carbon dioxide removal strategies. The authors emphasize the importance of ambitious commitments in upcoming climate discussions, painting a dire picture if legislative action is delayed.
Original Source: www.eurasiareview.com
