Guinea-Bissau’s legislative elections, scheduled for November 24, are threatened by legitimacy issues stemming from the President’s dissolution of the National People’s Assembly and institutional paralysis within the electoral commission and Supreme Court. These factors jeopardize the electoral process amidst rising political tensions. A dialogue among political stakeholders and potential intervention by ECOWAS are essential to restore institutional trust and enable credible elections.
The upcoming elections for the National People’s Assembly in Guinea-Bissau on November 24 represent a crucial opportunity for democratic advancement, yet they are overshadowed by significant legitimacy issues concerning the organizing institutions. The dissolution of the Assembly by President Umaro Embaló in December 2022 has exacerbated political tensions. Following a prior dissolution in May 2022, Embaló’s actions appear driven by a desire to manipulate institutional power relations that hinder his authority, particularly following the dominance of the Inclusive Alliance Platform coalition in the legislative elections held in June 2023. The pressing shortcomings identified include the compromised status of the Comissão Nacional de Eleições (CNE), whose leadership has not been sanctioned since the expiration of its previous mandate in April 2022. This stagnation arises from the government’s control over the CNE procedures and the inability of the National Assembly to install new members due to the repeated dissolutions. Moreover, the Supreme Court, vital for overseeing electoral integrity, is paralyzed, unable to fulfill its mandate since the forced resignation of its president in November due to political tussles. The Supreme Court’s functionality is crucial for reviewing candidates’ eligibility and validating election results. However, it lacks the necessary quorum for adjudication owing to ongoing disputes among its members, rendering it eventually unable to perform its critical electoral functions. This situation has led to the establishment of an ad hoc committee for managing candidate validations, which is questionable since it bypasses established legal frameworks governing the court’s operations. With escalating stakes as both legislative and presidential elections loom, the intricacies of the political machine suggest that a consensus among stakeholders is paramount. There is an urgent need for dialogue between President Embaló and various political entities to restore normal institutional operations pre- and post-elections. Moreover, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is urged to engage in efforts to mediate a peaceful electoral process—considering the possibility of postponing the elections to ensure the necessary institutional reforms are effectively instituted, thereby facilitating a credible electoral landscape. In summary, unless these institutional dysfunctions are addressed, including the electoral integrity of the CNE and Supreme Court, the legitimacy of the elections can be significantly compromised, leading to further political instability in Guinea-Bissau.
Guinea-Bissau is facing a critical juncture in its democratic process with the forthcoming legislative elections. The political climate has been strained due to the successive dissolutions of the National People’s Assembly by President Umaro Embaló, reflecting deeper issues within the country’s governing institutions. The legitimacy challenges surrounding the National Elections Commission and the paralysis of the Supreme Court raise serious concerns regarding the upcoming elections. Political players must navigate these complexities to create a stable electoral environment.
To mitigate the risks of political instability and ensure the credibility of elections in Guinea-Bissau, institutional legitimacy must be restored within the Comissão Nacional de Eleições and the Supreme Court. Meaningful dialogue among political factions, alongside potential intervention from ECOWAS, could provide a pathway to postpone the elections and address systemic issues, fostering trust and stability during this critical electoral period.
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