Four years after the military coup in Mali that overthrew President Aboubakar Keita, West Africa has witnessed a worrying trend of coup attempts and military takeovers, including notable events in Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger. This resurgence of military rule, seen as a critical juncture away from strengthening civilian governance, points to deep-rooted political and security challenges in the region. With a shift in international alliances from France to Russia, the overall stability of West Africa remains precarious, compounded by escalating violence and humanitarian crises.
In August 2020, a military coup in Mali marked a notable shift in the region known as West Africa’s ‘coup belt,’ where at least ten coup attempts have transpired in West and Central Africa in the four years following the takeover. The coup, led by a group of Malian soldiers who overthrew President Aboubakar Keita, arose amid significant public discontent regarding government corruption and ineffective management of an armed rebellion in northern Mali. The military assured citizens of urgent action against terrorist groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS. Since the Malian coup, there has been a discernible increase in the frequency of such military interventions. A year later, in September 2021, Guinea experienced a coup that removed President Alpha Conde. In January 2022, Burkina Faso followed suit as Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henro Damiba ousted President Roch Marc Christian Kabore, with further instability leading to his removal later that year by Captain Ibrahim Traore. The region continued to witness upheaval with the July 2023 coup in Niger, where President Mohamed Bazoum was detained by military officials. The trend suggests a resurgence of military rule reminiscent of the instability seen in Africa during the late 20th century. Commentators like Dan Eizenga from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies identify the Malian coup as a pivotal turning point, stating, “We largely saw civilian rule strengthening in Africa up until that moment, and I think that the Mali coup was a critical juncture in the weakening of that norm.” Collectively, these events illustrate a dramatic shift away from civilian governance, with military regimes often justifying their actions by citing failures of civilian leadership. In Mali, Colonel Assimi Goita transitioned from leading the initial coup to becoming president of the military-led government, significantly extending the timeline for promised elections. Countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have each adopted anti-French sentiments, leading to the termination of military cooperation with France and a pivot towards Russian support, inviting mercenary groups such as Wagner into the region. This complex dynamic has resulted in escalating violence, with record levels of fatalities linked to armed conflicts. Additionally, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has taken steps to address the surge in coups, yet its effectiveness has been contested. Critics argue that the bloc’s responses have been insufficient, thereby emboldening military coups and further complicating the political landscape. Eizenga asserts that the situation calls for a nuanced understanding of the interplay between military interventions and the enduring challenges of governance in the region.
The article examines the implications and consequences of the 2020 military coup in Mali, which is perceived as a catalyst for a series of subsequent coups across West and Central Africa. It contextualizes the historical backdrop of military rule in the region while analyzing the political ripple effects that followed Mali’s takeover. The growing trend of military governments replacing civilian administrations has raised concerns regarding the stability and governance of the region, particularly in the face of persistent threats from extremist groups. Furthermore, the dynamics of international relations in the region have shifted with the withdrawal of French military presence and the increasing influence of Russian support, particularly from mercenary groups.
In summary, the military coup in Mali in August 2020 has undeniably altered the political landscape of West Africa, initiating a wave of instability characterized by multiple coups and rising violence. The shift from civilian to military rule reflects deep-seated issues within governance and highlights challenges that regional bodies such as ECOWAS face in curbing such trends. As affected nations grapple with increasing armed conflict and humanitarian crises, the landscape suggests a reorientation of alliances, with a notable withdrawal from Western influence in favor of partnerships with nations like Russia. This underscores ongoing complexities in the efforts to restore and stabilize civilian governance amidst a backdrop of historical and entrenched challenges.
Original Source: www.aljazeera.com
