Egypt has delivered a second shipment of weapons to Somalia in September 2024, which includes anti-aircraft guns and artillery. This development raises concerns about escalating tensions in the Horn of Africa, particularly in light of Egypt’s strained relations with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The arms shipment has also prompted fears regarding the potential for these weapons to be utilized by extremist groups, particularly al-Shabaab.
On September 23, 2024, Egypt completed its second arms shipment to Somalia within a month, indicating a possible intensification of conflicts in the Horn of Africa. This consignment, transported by an Egyptian warship, comprised anti-aircraft guns and artillery. Such deliveries may trigger confrontations that encompass Egypt, Ethiopia, Somalia, Somaliland, and possibly additional regional stakeholders. The diplomatic relationship between Egypt and Somalia has strengthened recently, particularly as both nations have distanced themselves from Ethiopia. Tensions have escalated between Cairo and Addis Ababa regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which lies on the Ethiopian section of the Nile River and has been perceived by Egypt as a significant threat to its water resources since construction commenced in 2011. Despite efforts, including a United States-mediated resolution in 2019, these parties have not achieved a sustainable agreement. Somalia expressed its displeasure towards Ethiopia, which in January of this year signed a preliminary agreement with Somaliland for leasing land to develop a port, potentially implicating Somaliland’s quest for independence. Somalia firmly regards Somaliland as an integral part of its national territory. In response to Egypt’s arms shipment, the government of Somaliland voiced apprehensions about the prospect of such weapons falling into the possession of extremist groups, notably al-Shabaab. Expert Analysis Bill Roggio, Senior Fellow and Editor of FDD’s Long War Journal, articulated, “Egypt’s shipment of weapons to Somalia runs the risk of dangerous weapons systems, such as anti-aircraft guns and artillery, falling into the hands of al-Shabaab — al-Qaeda’s branch in East Africa. The Somali government is weak, and al-Shabaab has proven capable of overrunning Somali military bases. Additionally, Ethiopia has over 3,000 soldiers in Somalia to prevent al-Shabaab from gaining further ground. These troops may be withdrawn due to the dispute, further weakening the Somali military.” Mariam Wahba, FDD Research Analyst, remarked, “Egypt’s delivery of a second weapons shipment to Somalia underscores Cairo’s frustration with Ethiopia over the Nile dam. By deepening its military ties to and presence in Somalia, Egypt is signaling its readiness to confront Ethiopia militarily. This situation only heightens the security risk in the Horn of Africa.” Moreover, the strategic accessibility of Somaliland to the Red Sea gains significance amid Houthi-led attacks that have compromised global shipping and negatively affected the revenue from Egypt’s Suez Canal, dropping it by over 50 percent in less than a year. Ethiopia’s interest in utilizing part of Somaliland’s coastline for a naval base adds another layer of complexity, as local officials assert that such a base would enhance maritime security in the Gulf of Aden, a region severely affected by Houthi assaults on commercial shipments originating from Iran.
The dynamics surrounding Egypt’s military engagement with Somalia are intimately linked to the longstanding dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Since its initiation in 2011, the GERD has been perceived by Egypt as a formidable threat to its Nile water supply, leading to extensive negotiations that have ultimately failed. Concurrently, Ethiopia’s agreements with Somaliland have aggravated tensions, particularly concerning territorial sovereignty and security implications against the backdrop of regional jihadist threats.
In conclusion, Egypt’s recent military shipments to Somalia represent a significant strategic maneuver that may escalate tensions with Ethiopia and exacerbate the volatile security landscape in the Horn of Africa. As the situation evolves, the risk of heightened conflict, especially involving extremist groups like al-Shabaab, remains a pressing concern that could destabilize the region further. The implications of this military support necessitate vigilant observation from both regional and international partners.
Original Source: www.fdd.org
