The warming relations between Egypt and Turkiye face a significant test amid the ongoing crisis in Libya, particularly involving the central bank. Key political tensions have arisen following the removal of the central bank’s governor, impacting oil production and threatening regional stability. Both countries, historically supporting opposing sides in Libya, must now collaborate to facilitate a resolution that aligns with their economic interests and ensures border security for Egypt amidst the rising socio-economic volatility.
The recent detente between Egypt and Turkiye, marked by high-level visits from their respective leaders, signifies a potential shift in their previously tumultuous relations. This warming of ties comes amidst a critical crisis in Libya, particularly relating to its central bank, which poses the first significant challenge to this newfound cooperation. Sadiq Al-Kabir, the long-standing governor of Libya’s central bank, was ousted, inflaming tensions between competing factions in Libya—factions historically supported by Egypt and Turkiye. Al-Kabir claimed his life was in danger following his removal by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh and subsequently sought refuge in Turkiye. The fallout has disrupted Libya’s oil production, exacerbating an already precarious economic situation and inflating global energy prices. The economy, reliant on oil, faces imminent risks as the Libyan National Army, led by Khalifa Haftar, retaliates against the closure of oil supplies that are critical for the central government’s revenue distribution. With the United States advising banks to refrain from engaging with the Libyan central bank until a stable administration is in place, Libya risks a deeper economic crisis, endangering food imports and socioeconomic stability. As Egypt shares a significant border with Libya, any deterioration in Libya’s situation could lead to severe security implications for Cairo, particularly amid an ongoing economic recovery. Therefore, the evolving relationship between Egypt and Turkiye may pivot on their ability to navigate this crisis and stabilize Libya, which holds strategic economic interests for both nations. As both countries now strive to influence Libya’s warring factions towards a peaceful resolution, the viability of their cooperation will be tested against historically opposing interests, particularly in reconstruction efforts where both Turkiye and Egypt are significantly invested. Despite the skepticism surrounding their joint efforts, the leaders aim to mitigate tensions and potentially deploy coordinated strategies to enhance regional stability, underscoring the geopolitical importance of the Libyan crisis in the context of the greater Middle East dynamics. Thus, as Egypt and Turkiye work towards leveraging their newfound diplomatic ties to address the Libyan crisis, they may shift from historical rivalries to a more collaborative approach, directly tied to essential economic and strategic gains in the region.
The warming of relations between Egypt and Turkiye marks a significant turn in a decade-long rift characterized by support for opposing factions in regional conflicts. Recent diplomatic engagements, including exchanges of visits by the presidents, highlight a desire to overcome past hostilities. The Libya crisis, particularly the recent upheaval involving the central bank, presents an immediate test for this detente as both countries must navigate their respective influences over rival factions within Libya. The prolonged instability in Libya, augmented by economic difficulties and power struggles, has considerable implications not just for Libya’s internal dynamics but also for its neighboring countries, especially Egypt, which faces risks of spillover unrest due to the shared border.
The ongoing crisis in Libya serves as a pivotal moment for the Egypt-Turkiye detente, providing an opportunity for both nations to redefine their roles in a complex geopolitical landscape. While historically aligned with opposing factions, Egypt and Turkiye now face the necessity of collaborative efforts to restore stability in Libya and safeguard their economic and security interests. The effectiveness of their diplomatic engagement in the coming weeks will be closely monitored, as it may chart a new course for relations in the region and influence broader Middle Eastern geopolitics. Stability in Libya could be crucial for economic recovery for both countries and address security concerns that arise from instability across their mutual border.
Original Source: www.arabnews.com
