Above-normal rainfall is forecasted for the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September 2024, impacting countries such as Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan. This period is crucial for the region’s rainfall, and there is an increased risk of flooding akin to events in 1998 and 2010. Stakeholders are urged to prepare for the potential impacts on agriculture and water resources, as ICPAC provides essential climate forecasts to guide decision-making.
The Greater Horn of Africa is expected to experience above-normal rainfall from June to September 2024, as forecasted by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), a regional climate center recognized by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Key areas affected by this weather pattern include Djibouti, Eritrea, the central and northern regions of Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, much of Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan. The months of June through September mark a significant rainy season in the northern and western sectors of the Greater Horn of Africa, contributing over 90% of annual rainfall in the northern areas and around 40% in southern regions. This forecast is reminiscent of wetter-than-normal conditions observed in 1998 and 2010, and there is a heightened risk of flooding, especially in South Sudan and Sudan, as reported by Dr. Guleid Artan, the Director of ICPAC. In light of this predicted wetter season, countries that have recently endured severe flooding, such as Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, the United Republic of Tanzania, as well as parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Uganda, will transition into a dry period. The issuance of seasonal climate outlooks serves a critical purpose for stakeholders in agriculture, health, and water resource management, forming part of the broader initiatives under the WMO’s “Early Warnings for All.” This particular forecast was announced during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, which convenes climate scientists, governmental and non-governmental organizations, alongside sectors sensitive to climate fluctuations. For over twenty years, the WMO has facilitated regional climate outlook forums aimed at providing actionable climate forecasts and vital information that can mitigate risks to lives and livelihoods while bolstering essential sectors. Following guidelines from the WMO, ICPAC has implemented a systematic approach to seasonal forecasting for the Greater Horn of Africa, employing initialized seasonal forecasts from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs) and applying three calibration methods. The forecast anticipates an early to normal onset of rainfall in several areas such as central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan; however, a delayed onset is likely in Djibouti and parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, as well as central and western Sudan, and southern South Sudan. Furthermore, temperature forecasts indicate a likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions throughout the region, particularly in northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
The Greater Horn of Africa, consisting of countries like Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan, is highly dependent on seasonal rainfall patterns for its agriculture, water supply, and overall livelihood. The months from June to September are critical for the region, especially in the northern and western parts, where these rains provide the majority of the annual precipitation. Past climatic patterns observed in 1998 and 2010 serve as reminders of the potential impacts of above-normal rainfall, including flooding. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), a recognized entity within the regional climate assessment framework, plays a crucial role in disseminating forecasts that inform various sectors affected by these climatic conditions.
In conclusion, the forecast of above-normal rainfall for the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September 2024 necessitates preparedness, especially in regions prone to flooding. The predictions echo historic patterns and highlight the importance of seasonal outlooks for decision-making in agriculture, health, and water management. Furthermore, the collaborative effort among climate scientists and stakeholders is vital to mitigate potential adverse effects and to promote resilience in the face of climatic uncertainties.
Original Source: wmo.int
