As tensions rise between Egypt and Ethiopia, Somalia may be drawn into their geopolitical struggle. Recent military supplies from Egypt to Somalia signify a growing alliance aimed at countering Ethiopian influence, particularly following Ethiopia’s military agreements with Somaliland that threaten Somalia’s territorial integrity. Both countries have issued warnings, raising concerns of potential conflict, but experts believe that third-party influences may help to mediate these escalations.
Recent developments in military cooperation between Egypt and Somalia have raised concerns that Somalia might become a battleground for proxy conflicts between Egypt and Ethiopia. Over the past month, Egypt has delivered significant military supplies to Somalia, including artillery and anti-aircraft weaponry, underscoring a growing alliance between Cairo and Mogadishu. This alliance developed amidst escalating tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, particularly following Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland that permits the latter to establish a military base on its coast in return for Ethiopia’s recognition of the region’s independence. Both nations are now poised on the brink of potential conflict; Ethiopia warned Egypt that any military escalation detrimental to its interests in Somalia would provoke a response. Concurrently, Egypt has assured it is prepared to protect its presence and Somali interests vigorously. Strikingly, diplomatic relations among the nations in the Horn of Africa have deteriorated, with Somalia and Ethiopia experiencing their lowest ties in years. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed recently emphasized the importance of securing a coastline for his landlocked country while pursuing military commitments with Somaliland that threaten Somalia’s territorial integrity. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s visit to Cairo resulted in a defense agreement aimed at bolstering Somalia’s military capacity, with Egypt poised to train and equip Somali forces. This convergence of interests may allow Egypt to not only establish a military foothold in Somalia but also gather intelligence operations against Ethiopian rebels within the country. Local analysts speculate that if the Ethiopian-Egyptian tension escalates into armed conflict within Somalia, it could inadvertently aid Mogadishu in enhancing its military capabilities. Somali officials have threatened to align themselves with Ethiopian rebels unless Ethiopia retracts its agreement with Somaliland. However, while such conflict remains a possibility, experts contend that various mediating forces, including Turkey’s diplomatic influence in the region, will likely work to avert an escalation into violence.
The geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa has become increasingly fraught with tensions, particularly following fractious dealings between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Somalia. In light of Ethiopia’s strategic agreements with Somaliland to secure coastal access, Egypt’s assistance to Somalia seems to represent a tactical response to perceived threats against its influence in the region, especially relating to water security linked to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Somalia’s historical instability, characterized by internal divisions and terrorist threats, complicates its diplomatic interactions while presenting an opportunity for external powers to exert influence should the situation deteriorate militarily.
In summary, Somalia appears to be at a pivotal juncture where external powers, namely Egypt and Ethiopia, are vying for influence, potentially leading to increased tensions in the region. While a direct military confrontation remains unlikely due to the prevalent conflicts affecting both countries and regional mediative efforts by influential outside players, the situation demands careful management to ensure that Somalia’s sovereignty is not overshadowed by external ambitions. The unfolding events could redefine alliances and power dynamics in the Horn of Africa, with both nations striving to leverage their respective positions for greater strategic advantage.
Original Source: www.newarab.com
