The arms race in Somalia, involving Egypt and Ethiopia, stems from historical tensions over the Nile, enhancing fears for regional security amid the fight against al-Shabaab. Somalia asserts its sovereignty while accusing Ethiopia of arms smuggling, complicating the situation further with shifting alliances and diplomatic maneuvers favoring Egypt.
The longstanding rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia regarding the management of the Nile has intensified, as both nations now engage in an arms race in Somalia. This situation is likely to disrupt regional cooperation in countering terrorism, particularly involving the militant group al-Shabaab. Somalia has asserted its sovereignty, claiming the right to determine foreign military presence and arms supplies on its territory. However, Ethiopia perceives this as a direct threat to its national security, especially given Somalia’s growing alliance with Cairo, a historical adversary of Addis Ababa. Recent developments began when Egypt commenced military aid shipments to Somalia, including arm deliveries and potential troop deployments set for early next year. Notably, a recent shipment of military equipment was sent to the Port of Mogadishu, with Egypt reportedly increasing its naval presence in the Red Sea to facilitate further transport. Meanwhile, Ethiopia has troops stationed in Somalia as part of the ongoing African Union Transition Mission alongside bilateral collaborations to bolster Somali security. Ethiopia contends that these arms transfers from Egypt could exacerbate tensions and enable al-Shabaab, as noted by Ethiopian State Minister for Industry, Tarekegn Bululta, who warned about the proliferation of arms in unstable regions. Despite Ethiopian claims, Somalia’s Foreign Minister, Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, accused Ethiopia of weapon smuggling into the Puntland region, asserting that such actions infringe upon Somalia’s sovereignty and contribute to regional insecurity. The context of their disputes is further complicated by a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and the Somaliland Authorities that allows Ethiopia to establish a naval base, which Somalia views as a direct challenge to its territorial integrity. In light of these developments, Somalia has lobbied for the exclusion of Ethiopian forces from the planned African Union Support Mission in Somalia and is seeking to replace Ethiopian involvement with troops from Egypt. This diplomatic maneuver highlights the growing estrangement between Somalia and Ethiopia. In conclusion, the evolving situation indicates a precarious security environment in the Horn of Africa, with historical animosities re-emerging and alliances shifting in profound ways. The interactions between these nations will undoubtedly shape the future stability of the region and the prospects of counterterrorism initiatives against groups like al-Shabaab.
The relationship between Egypt and Ethiopia has been historically fraught, primarily centered around the use and management of the Nile River. The Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD) project in Ethiopia has been a significant point of contention between the two nations. Somalia’s strategic location and involvement in this dispute have worsened tensions, particularly with the implications of foreign military assistance impacting regional security dynamics. The rise of al-Shabaab and ongoing instability in Somalia have prompted regional powers to increase military support, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.
The intensification of military aid and armament transfers in Somalia by both Egypt and Ethiopia not only signals a significant escalation of their rivalry but also poses potential repercussions for regional stability and counterterrorism efforts. The existing alliances and disputes, particularly Somalia’s rejection of Ethiopian influence and its lean towards Egyptian support, will likely continue to evolve in the coming months, necessitating close monitoring from international stakeholders.
Original Source: nation.africa
